For my own markets, it is not retroactive if I didn’t say it at the time (which I did for many markets). In that case, I would resist doing so exactly because I think this is a low-probability but possible event, and I continue to find it interesting. If it was 3% (trading at Superconductor) I would be tempted to early resolve, but 5% isn’t there yet.
To be clear, I WOULD likely resolve the Superconductor market now under this rule, I think it is trading at interest rate.
For the bet, at 93% with active arguing on both sides and real trading, definitely not. Even if this were 95%, I wouldn’t resolve, because it is based on a 150-to-1 baseline bet and there is a clear contingent arguing the other way. So if I made a UFO market like this I would say ‘This cannot resolve early to YES, period.’
For the election case, if I saw the desks collectively resolving I would resolve, but if something is going to be 99.99% a day later and it’s 99% now, might as well wait. If it’s going to be two months, do it now.
For my own markets, it is not retroactive if I didn’t say it at the time (which I did for many markets). In that case, I would resist doing so exactly because I think this is a low-probability but possible event, and I continue to find it interesting. If it was 3% (trading at Superconductor) I would be tempted to early resolve, but 5% isn’t there yet.
To be clear, I WOULD likely resolve the Superconductor market now under this rule, I think it is trading at interest rate.
For the bet, at 93% with active arguing on both sides and real trading, definitely not. Even if this were 95%, I wouldn’t resolve, because it is based on a 150-to-1 baseline bet and there is a clear contingent arguing the other way. So if I made a UFO market like this I would say ‘This cannot resolve early to YES, period.’
For the election case, if I saw the desks collectively resolving I would resolve, but if something is going to be 99.99% a day later and it’s 99% now, might as well wait. If it’s going to be two months, do it now.