I have made it up to episode 5 of Umineko, and I’ve found one incident in particular unusually easy to resolve (easy enough that though the answer hasn’t been suggested by anyone in-game, I am sure that I know how it was/could be done); I’m wondering how much it is due to specialized knowledge and whether it really looks harder to other people. (Because of the curse of knowledge, it’s now difficult for me to see whether the puzzle really is as trivial as it looks to me.) So, a little poll, even though LWers are not the best people to ask.
In episode 5, an unknown caller phones Natsuhi in her locked personal room. He says he’s predicted her favorite season of the year, and asks her what it really is. She replies ‘winter’, and he says that is what he predicted. She is skeptical and he tells her to look underneath a clock in her room. She does and finds a slip of paper with the word ‘winter’ on it: he had been there earlier and left it as proof of his prediction. Natsuhi is shocked and mystified.
How sure are you that you know how he did it?
[pollid:549]
How would you rate your familiarity with cryptography?
Guvf “chmmyr” frrzf rnfl gb na rkgerzr, gb zr ng yrnfg. Gur gevivny fbyhgvba jbhyq or gb uvqr nyy gur cbffvoyr nafjref va qvssrerag cynprf, naq bayl gryy ure gb ybbx va gur cynpr jurer ur uvq gur nafjre ur trgf gbyq vf pbeerpg. (Va guvf pnfr, haqre gur pybpx.)
My thought was the same as palladias’. I’m not seeing an obvious way involving cryptography though, but I am somewhat familiar with it (I understand RSA and its proof).
V fhfcrpg gurer ner sbhe fyvcf bs cncre va qvssrerag cnegf bs ure ebbz. Naq vs ur pbhyq farnx gurz va, gura gurer’f n ernfbanoyr punapr ur pna farnx gur guerr fyvcf ersreevat gb aba-jvagre frnfbaf bhg orsber fur svaqf gurz.
I’m rather alarmed at how many people appear to have said they’re very sure they know how he did it, on (I assume, but I think it’s pretty clear) the basis of having thought of one very credible way he could have done it.
I’m going to be optimistic and suppose that all those people thought something like “Although gwern asked how sure we are that we know how it was done, context suggests that the puzzle is really ‘find a way to do it’ rather than ‘identify the specific way used in this case’, so I’ll say ‘very’ even though for all I know there could be other ways’.
(For what it’s worth, I pedantically chose the “middle” option for that question, but I found the same obvious solution as everyone else.)
I’m going to be optimistic and suppose that all those people thought something like “Although gwern asked how sure we are that we know how it was done, context suggests that the puzzle is really ‘find a way to do it’ rather than ‘identify the specific way used in this case’, so I’ll say ‘very’ even though for all I know there could be other ways’.
In the case of Umineko, there’s not really any difference between ‘find a way’ and ‘find the way’, since it adheres to a relativistic Schrodinger’s-cat-inspired epistemology where all that matters is successfully explaining the observed evidence. So I don’t expect the infelicitous wording to make a difference.
As it turns out, there’s a second possible way using a detail I didn’t bother to mention (because I assumed it was a red herring and not as satisfactory a solution anyway):
Angfhuv npghnyyl fnlf fur’f arire rire gbyq nalbar ure snibevgr frnfba rkprcg sbe gur srznyr freinag Funaaba lrnef ntb, naq guvaxf nobhg jurgure Funaaba pbhyq or pbafcvevat jvgu gur lbhat znyr pnyyre. Rkprcg Funaaba vf n ebyr cynlrq ol gur traqre-pbashfrq pebffqerffvat phycevg Lnfh (nybat jvgu gur ebyrf bs Xnaba & Orngevpr), fb gur thrff pbhyq unir orra onfrq ba abguvat ohg ure zrzbel bs orvat gbyq gung.
Crefbanyyl, rira vs V jnf va fhpu n cbfvgvba, V jbhyq fgvyy cersre hfvat gur pneq gevpx: jul pbhyqa’g Angfhuv unir punatrq ure zvaq bire gur lrnef? Be abg orra frevbhf va gur svefg cynpr? Be Funaaba unir zvferzrzorerq? rgp
Thanks for all the poll submissions. I decided since I just finished Umineko, this is a good time to analyze the 49 responses.
The gist is that the direction seems to be as predicted and the effect size reasonable (odds-ratio of 1.77), but not big enough to yield any impressive level of statistical-significance (p=0.24):
R> poll <- read.csv("http://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/182368464/umineko-poll.csv″)
R> library(ordinal)
R> summary(clm(as.ordered(Certainty) ~ Crypto, data=poll))
formula: as.ordered(Certainty) ~ Crypto
data: poll
link threshold nobs logLik AIC niter max.grad cond.H
logit flexible 48 −30.58 67.16 5(0) 5.28e-09 2.9e+01
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
Crypto 0.571 0.491 1.16 0.24
Threshold coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error z value
0|1 1.988 0.708 2.81
1|2 3.075 0.822 3.74
(1 observation deleted due to missingness)
R> exp(0.571)
[1] 1.77
Or if you prefer, a linear regression:
R> summary(lm(Certainty ~ Crypto, data=poll))
Call:
lm(formula = Certainty ~ Crypto, data = poll)
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-0.409 -0.287 -0.287 -0.164 1.836
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 0.164 0.151 1.09 0.28
Crypto 0.122 0.117 1.05 0.30
Downvoted because you made a poll in the open thread, thus making the RSS feed impossible to subscribe to, and producing a whole thread full of encrypted nonsense.
The answer to the question I am asking (whether perceived difficulty interacts with cryptography knowledge) is not ‘duh’, and is difficult-to-impossible to answer without a poll. If you think the answer is duh, you are not understanding the point of the poll and you are underrating the possible inferential distance & curses of knowledge at play in trying to guess the answer.
I have made it up to episode 5 of Umineko, and I’ve found one incident in particular unusually easy to resolve (easy enough that though the answer hasn’t been suggested by anyone in-game, I am sure that I know how it was/could be done); I’m wondering how much it is due to specialized knowledge and whether it really looks harder to other people. (Because of the curse of knowledge, it’s now difficult for me to see whether the puzzle really is as trivial as it looks to me.) So, a little poll, even though LWers are not the best people to ask.
In episode 5, an unknown caller phones Natsuhi in her locked personal room. He says he’s predicted her favorite season of the year, and asks her what it really is. She replies ‘winter’, and he says that is what he predicted. She is skeptical and he tells her to look underneath a clock in her room. She does and finds a slip of paper with the word ‘winter’ on it: he had been there earlier and left it as proof of his prediction. Natsuhi is shocked and mystified.
How sure are you that you know how he did it?
[pollid:549]
How would you rate your familiarity with cryptography?
[pollid:550]
(Please rot13 any replies.)
V pna guvax bs guerr jnlf bs qbvat guvf gevpx.
Ur uvq sbhe fyvcf bs cncre, bar sbe rnpu frnfba. Cerfhznoyl ur jvyy erzbir gur bgure guerr ng gur svefg bccbeghavgl.
Ur unf qbar fbzr erfrnepu gb qvfpbire fbzr snpg nobhg ure gb hfr va uvf qrzbafgengvba.
Fur unf hfrq ure snibevgr frnfba nf gur nafjre gb n frphevgl dhrfgvba ba n jro fvgr gung ur unf nqzva-yriry npprff gb.
Gurer znl or bgure jnlf. Jvgu fb znal, V pnaabg or irel fher gung nal fvatyr bar gung V pubbfr vf evtug.
Guvf “chmmyr” frrzf rnfl gb na rkgerzr, gb zr ng yrnfg. Gur gevivny fbyhgvba jbhyq or gb uvqr nyy gur cbffvoyr nafjref va qvssrerag cynprf, naq bayl gryy ure gb ybbx va gur cynpr jurer ur uvq gur nafjre ur trgf gbyq vf pbeerpg. (Va guvf pnfr, haqre gur pybpx.)
Cerqvpgvba: Ur chg sbhe fyvcf bs cncre va gur ebbz (r.t. pybpx, grqql orne, fubr, cntr # bs grkgobbx), naq pubfr juvpu bowrpg gb qverpg ure gb onfrq ba ure erfcbafr. Ur’f unir gb erzbir gur bgure guerr fbbavfu, ohg ur boivbhfyl unq npprff bapr, naq vs gurl’er nyy va fhssvpvragyl bofpher cynprf, vg jbhyq or cerggl rnfl
My thought was the same as palladias’. I’m not seeing an obvious way involving cryptography though, but I am somewhat familiar with it (I understand RSA and its proof).
Zl crefbany guvaxvat jnf “Bar bs gur rnfvrfg jnlf gb purng n pelcgbtencuvp unfu cerpbzzvgzrag vf gb znxr zhygvcyr fhpu unfurf naq fryrpgviryl erirny n fcrpvsvp bar nf nccebcevngr; gur punenpgre unf irevsvnoyl cerpbzzvggrq gb n cnegvphyne cerqvpgvba bs ‘jvagre’, ohg unf ur irevsvnoyl cerpbzvggrq gb bayl bar cerqvpgvba?”
(Nqzvggrqyl V unir orra guvaxvat nobhg unfu cerpbzzvgzragf zber guna hfhny orpnhfr V unir n ybat-grez cebwrpg jubfr pbapyhfvba vaibyirf unfu cerpbzzvgzragf naq V qba’g jnag gb zvfhfr gurz be yrnir crbcyr ebbz sbe bowrpgvba.)
V qvqa’g guvax ng nyy nobhg unfurf (naq V qba’g unir zhpu rkcrevrapr jvgu gurz rkprcg n ovg bs gurbel). V whfg ena ‘jung jbhyq V qb jvgu npprff gb gur ebbz nurnq bs gvzr naq jung qb V xabj?’ naq bhg cbccrq sbhe furrgf bs cncre.
Bs pbhefr, erirnyvat n unfu nsgre gur snpg cebirf abguvat, rira vs vg’f irevsvnoyl gvzrfgnzcrq. Nabgure cbffvoyr gevpx vf gb fraq n qvssrerag cerqvpgvba gb qvssrerag tebhcf bs crbcyr fb gung ng yrnfg bar tebhc jvyy frr lbhe cerqvpgvba pbzr gehr. V qba’g xabj bs na rnfl jnl nebhaq gung vs gur tebhcf qba’g pbzzhavpngr.
Guvf vf irel yvxr gur sbbgonyy cvpxf fpnz.
V’z abg fher V jbhyq unir pnyyrq guvf n sbez bs pelcgbtencul jrer V hacevzrq, ohg jvgu bayl sbhe cbffvoyr nafjref ur whfg unf gb cvpx sbhe uvqvat cynprf naq gryy ure gb ybbx va gur evtug bar, evtug?
Gurer jrer abgrf sbe rnpu bs gur sbhe frnfbaf uvqqra va qvssrerag cynprf nebhaq gur ebbz. Gur pnyyre fvzcyl ersreerq ure gb gur uvqvat-cynpr bs gur abgr gung zngpurq ure nafjre.
Zl svefg gubhtug ba ernqvat gur ceboyrz—juvpu fgvyy frrzf yvxr zl org thrff, ba ersyrpgvba, gubhtu.
Qvqa’g ibgr ba gur “ubj fher ner lbh”, orpnhfr V’z ab ybatre fher ubj fher V nz—V’z hasnzvyvne jvgu gur fubj, naq gur ersrerapr gb pelcgbtencul fhttrfgf fbzr bgure fbyhgvba (V’z snzvyvne jvgu ehqvzragnel zntvp gevpxf, juvpu vf cebonoyl jurer ZL fbyhgvba pbzrf sebz.) Ohg V pregnvayl qba’g unir “ab vqrn” ubj vg jnf qbar.
Posted before I read other replies:
V fhfcrpg gurer ner sbhe fyvcf bs cncre va qvssrerag cnegf bs ure ebbz. Naq vs ur pbhyq farnx gurz va, gura gurer’f n ernfbanoyr punapr ur pna farnx gur guerr fyvcf ersreevat gb aba-jvagre frnfbaf bhg orsber fur svaqf gurz.
Yvxr frireny bs gur bgure pbzzragref V dhvpxyl fnj ubj guvf pbhyq or qbar jvgu onfvp fgntr zntvp, ohg qrfcvgr orvat snveyl snzvyvne jvgu pelcgb V qvqa’g vzzrqvngryl znxr gur pbaarpgvba gb pelcgb hagvy V fnj lbhe pbzzrag ba unfu cer-pbzzvgzragf. Univat n fvatyr pnabavpny yvfg bs lbhe cer-pbzzvgzragf. choyvfurq va nqinapr jbhyq frrz gb fbyir cngpu guvf fcrpvsvp irarenovyvgl.
V cnggrea zngpurq zl vqrn bs gur fbyhgvba gb gur onfvp fgntr zntvp gevpx bs univat znal uvqqra bcgvbaf naq znxvat gur znex guvax lbh bayl unq gur bar lbh fubjrq gurz, abg pelcgbtencul.
I’m rather alarmed at how many people appear to have said they’re very sure they know how he did it, on (I assume, but I think it’s pretty clear) the basis of having thought of one very credible way he could have done it.
I’m going to be optimistic and suppose that all those people thought something like “Although gwern asked how sure we are that we know how it was done, context suggests that the puzzle is really ‘find a way to do it’ rather than ‘identify the specific way used in this case’, so I’ll say ‘very’ even though for all I know there could be other ways’.
(For what it’s worth, I pedantically chose the “middle” option for that question, but I found the same obvious solution as everyone else.)
In the case of Umineko, there’s not really any difference between ‘find a way’ and ‘find the way’, since it adheres to a relativistic Schrodinger’s-cat-inspired epistemology where all that matters is successfully explaining the observed evidence. So I don’t expect the infelicitous wording to make a difference.
Ah, OK. I wasn’t aware of that bit of context. Thanks.
As it turns out, there’s a second possible way using a detail I didn’t bother to mention (because I assumed it was a red herring and not as satisfactory a solution anyway):
Angfhuv npghnyyl fnlf fur’f arire rire gbyq nalbar ure snibevgr frnfba rkprcg sbe gur srznyr freinag Funaaba lrnef ntb, naq guvaxf nobhg jurgure Funaaba pbhyq or pbafcvevat jvgu gur lbhat znyr pnyyre. Rkprcg Funaaba vf n ebyr cynlrq ol gur traqre-pbashfrq pebffqerffvat phycevg Lnfh (nybat jvgu gur ebyrf bs Xnaba & Orngevpr), fb gur thrff pbhyq unir orra onfrq ba abguvat ohg ure zrzbel bs orvat gbyq gung.
Crefbanyyl, rira vs V jnf va fhpu n cbfvgvba, V jbhyq fgvyy cersre hfvat gur pneq gevpx: jul pbhyqa’g Angfhuv unir punatrq ure zvaq bire gur lrnef? Be abg orra frevbhf va gur svefg cynpr? Be Funaaba unir zvferzrzorerq? rgp
Mentally subtract my vote from “No idea” onto “Very” since apparently I can read poll answers better than poll questions.
Creuncf gur fyvc bs cncre ybbxrq fbzrguvat yvxr guvf. (Qrfvtavat na nzovtenz jbhyq or nanybtbhf gb svaqvat zhygvcyr zrffntrf jvgu gur fnzr unfu.)
Gung’q arire jbex sbe n frpbaq ba n uhzna. V qba’g guvax V’ir frra nal nzovtenzf juvpu ner fb fzbbgu gung lbh pbhyq frr rvgure bar onfrq ba n cevzr jvgubhg abgvat gung gur jevgvat vf irel bqq. V pna’g rira ernq nal bs gung nzovtenz rkprcg sbe ‘fcevat’, fgenvavat uneq.
Gung cnegvphyne nzovtenz, fher. (Vg’f nyfb qvsvphyg gb svaq zhygvcyr zrffntrf jvgu gur fnzr unfu.) Ohg Qreera Oebja hfrq guvf nzovtenz va uvf 2007 frevrf “Gevpx be Gerng” jvgu ng yrnfg gur nccrnenapr bs fhpprff (gubhtu nf nyjnlf jvgu Oebja, vg’f cbffvoyr ur jnf sbbyvat hf engure guna gur cnegvpvcnag).
Thanks for all the poll submissions. I decided since I just finished Umineko, this is a good time to analyze the 49 responses.
The gist is that the direction seems to be as predicted and the effect size reasonable (odds-ratio of 1.77), but not big enough to yield any impressive level of statistical-significance (p=0.24):
Or if you prefer, a linear regression:
Zhygvcyr ovgf bs cncre, boivbhfyl.
DUH
Downvoted because you made a poll in the open thread, thus making the RSS feed impossible to subscribe to, and producing a whole thread full of encrypted nonsense.
The answer to the question I am asking (whether perceived difficulty interacts with cryptography knowledge) is not ‘duh’, and is difficult-to-impossible to answer without a poll. If you think the answer is duh, you are not understanding the point of the poll and you are underrating the possible inferential distance & curses of knowledge at play in trying to guess the answer.