Democrats nominate Biden, and he remains nominee on Election Day: 90%
Hold. Biden is trading at 78 right now to be the Democratic nominee. This market is completely insane. You should buy him.
I’m willing to buy at 86%, but Predictit fees are too high (Biden currently trading at 81%, and they take 5% fee + 10% of gross profits) and the relevant Metaculus question is already closed. Let this be a public statement of my belief for epistemic traning purposes.
There’s enough obvious mispricings (e.g. the various Hillary markets) that it’s not worth worrying too much about the 5% fee if you’re willing to reinvest your winnings instead of withdrawing
I’m willing to buy at 86%, but Predictit fees are too high (Biden currently trading at 81%, and they take 5% fee + 10% of gross profits) and the relevant Metaculus question is already closed. Let this be a public statement of my belief for epistemic traning purposes.
There’s enough obvious mispricings (e.g. the various Hillary markets) that it’s not worth worrying too much about the 5% fee if you’re willing to reinvest your winnings instead of withdrawing