Yep, i think that’s exactly why markets have Trump at 50% chance to win (that’s what I meant by “don’t understand how betting works). It baffles me that Zvi and Scott also have Trump at 50% chance to win though; it’s a dramatic and unjustified overcorrection.
Before the election that Trump won a lot of people severely underrated Trumps chance of winning. Now, they seem to tried to correct for it.
Yep, i think that’s exactly why markets have Trump at 50% chance to win (that’s what I meant by “don’t understand how betting works). It baffles me that Zvi and Scott also have Trump at 50% chance to win though; it’s a dramatic and unjustified overcorrection.