There is only one natural solution to the problem of the reference class: use only those who know about Doomsday argument as the members of the reference class.
Unfortunately, acceptance of this reference class means Doom very soon, as such people appeared only after 1983, and in large numbers even in 2000s. It means that the reference class of people who knows about DA will end in 10-20 years from now.
But it may not mean extinction: may be DA will be disproved or will go out of favor.
This is false. I thought of the argument myself before I ever heard it from anyone else, and I have no doubt at all that many people did the same before me over the centuries.
There is only one natural solution to the problem of the reference class: use only those who know about Doomsday argument as the members of the reference class.
Or discard the idea of natural reference classes entirely, as SIA and ADT both do.
There is only one natural solution to the problem of the reference class: use only those who know about Doomsday argument as the members of the reference class.
Unfortunately, acceptance of this reference class means Doom very soon, as such people appeared only after 1983, and in large numbers even in 2000s. It means that the reference class of people who knows about DA will end in 10-20 years from now.
But it may not mean extinction: may be DA will be disproved or will go out of favor.
“as such people appeared only after 1983”
This is false. I thought of the argument myself before I ever heard it from anyone else, and I have no doubt at all that many people did the same before me over the centuries.
Or discard the idea of natural reference classes entirely, as SIA and ADT both do.