“The argument is also vulnerable to changes of reference class; it gives different implications if we consider ‘the list of all humans’, ‘the list of all mammals’, or ‘the list of all people with my name’. ”
There is nothing strange about this, just as there is nothing strange about the fact that there is evidence for and against the same thing, and stronger and weaker evidence. If you took 100 lists like that, and you knew exactly how many of each thing there were going to be, you would turn out to be 50% through the lists on average, even though you might be e.g. only 10% through one particular list, and through 92% of another etc.
There is only one natural solution to the problem of the reference class: use only those who know about Doomsday argument as the members of the reference class.
Unfortunately, acceptance of this reference class means Doom very soon, as such people appeared only after 1983, and in large numbers even in 2000s. It means that the reference class of people who knows about DA will end in 10-20 years from now.
But it may not mean extinction: may be DA will be disproved or will go out of favor.
This is false. I thought of the argument myself before I ever heard it from anyone else, and I have no doubt at all that many people did the same before me over the centuries.
There is only one natural solution to the problem of the reference class: use only those who know about Doomsday argument as the members of the reference class.
Or discard the idea of natural reference classes entirely, as SIA and ADT both do.
“The argument is also vulnerable to changes of reference class; it gives different implications if we consider ‘the list of all humans’, ‘the list of all mammals’, or ‘the list of all people with my name’. ”
There is nothing strange about this, just as there is nothing strange about the fact that there is evidence for and against the same thing, and stronger and weaker evidence. If you took 100 lists like that, and you knew exactly how many of each thing there were going to be, you would turn out to be 50% through the lists on average, even though you might be e.g. only 10% through one particular list, and through 92% of another etc.
There is only one natural solution to the problem of the reference class: use only those who know about Doomsday argument as the members of the reference class.
Unfortunately, acceptance of this reference class means Doom very soon, as such people appeared only after 1983, and in large numbers even in 2000s. It means that the reference class of people who knows about DA will end in 10-20 years from now.
But it may not mean extinction: may be DA will be disproved or will go out of favor.
“as such people appeared only after 1983”
This is false. I thought of the argument myself before I ever heard it from anyone else, and I have no doubt at all that many people did the same before me over the centuries.
Or discard the idea of natural reference classes entirely, as SIA and ADT both do.