Why couldn’t the ball I’ve just got been put into the box on HH? On HH, after we turn the second coin we get HT which is not HH, so a ball is put into the box, no?
Well, sure but then it would mean that the ball wasn’t put into the box on HH, it was put into the box on HT.
If this explanation still feels confusing as if something unlawful is going on—it’s because it is. It’s the exact kind of slight of hand that JeffJo uses to show that 1⁄3 is the correct answer to Two-Coin-Toss version of Sleeping Beauty. If you are able to spot the mistake here you should be able to spot it in his reasoning as well.
I see, I haven’t yet read that one. But yes, we should be clear what we denote with HH/HT/TT/TH, the coins before, or after the turning of second coin.
Why couldn’t the ball I’ve just got been put into the box on HH? On HH, after we turn the second coin we get HT which is not HH, so a ball is put into the box, no?
Well, sure but then it would mean that the ball wasn’t put into the box on HH, it was put into the box on HT.
If this explanation still feels confusing as if something unlawful is going on—it’s because it is. It’s the exact kind of slight of hand that JeffJo uses to show that 1⁄3 is the correct answer to Two-Coin-Toss version of Sleeping Beauty. If you are able to spot the mistake here you should be able to spot it in his reasoning as well.
I see, I haven’t yet read that one. But yes, we should be clear what we denote with HH/HT/TT/TH, the coins before, or after the turning of second coin.