I confidently switched from 1⁄3 to 1⁄2 and then back to 1⁄3 and then noticed the inconsistency and am now not certain that the question makes sense as posed at all, and I’m not sure what would fix it but maybe specifying better why one wants to know the answer so that it can be answered by decision theory rather than some objective “which one is true”.
from third to half: the betting argument that Greg D expresses, more or less. Mostly the first paragraph, I didn’t expand it to his second paragraph.
from half back to third: @Tamsin Leake’s sequentialized version: you go to sleep. you are woken once on monday and twice on tuesday. each time, your memory is reset. given that you observed yourself wake, is it monday or tuesday?
but wait, I’m not sure any of this makes sense: the anthropic decision theory paper.
except now I’m not sure, in retrospect, whether maybe I found the anthropic decision paper theory before hearing tamsin’s argument, and so in fact never really switched back to third, just would have done so if I had still accepted the framing at all?
you go to sleep. you are woken once on monday and twice on tuesday. each time, your memory is reset. given that you observed yourself wake, is it monday or tuesday?
Oh, that’s a good one! I think I see how it can prompt thirders intuition, but do you by chance have a link to the argument as a whole?
I confidently switched from 1⁄3 to 1⁄2 and then back to 1⁄3 and then noticed the inconsistency and am now not certain that the question makes sense as posed at all, and I’m not sure what would fix it but maybe specifying better why one wants to know the answer so that it can be answered by decision theory rather than some objective “which one is true”.
Can you remember which argument switched you from thirdism to halfism and back?
from third to half: the betting argument that Greg D expresses, more or less. Mostly the first paragraph, I didn’t expand it to his second paragraph.
from half back to third: @Tamsin Leake’s sequentialized version: you go to sleep. you are woken once on monday and twice on tuesday. each time, your memory is reset. given that you observed yourself wake, is it monday or tuesday?
but wait, I’m not sure any of this makes sense: the anthropic decision theory paper.
except now I’m not sure, in retrospect, whether maybe I found the anthropic decision paper theory before hearing tamsin’s argument, and so in fact never really switched back to third, just would have done so if I had still accepted the framing at all?
Thanks!
Oh, that’s a good one! I think I see how it can prompt thirders intuition, but do you by chance have a link to the argument as a whole?
No, it was in person. But I think that was more or less the extent of the argument.