Just want to make sure I’m understanding the terminology. Saying I’m 10% confident of proposition X is equivalent to saying I’m 90% confident in not-X, right?
Yes. However, since the point of the game is to display beliefs that you hold and others don’t, you should choose the phrasing that makes your confidence higher than LW’s. That is: if you think other LWers are 5% confident of X, then you should say you’re 10% confident of X; and if you think other LWers are 15% confident of X, then you should say you’re 90% confident of not-X.
Just want to make sure I’m understanding the terminology. Saying I’m 10% confident of proposition X is equivalent to saying I’m 90% confident in not-X, right?
Yes. However, since the point of the game is to display beliefs that you hold and others don’t, you should choose the phrasing that makes your confidence higher than LW’s. That is: if you think other LWers are 5% confident of X, then you should say you’re 10% confident of X; and if you think other LWers are 15% confident of X, then you should say you’re 90% confident of not-X.