I suspect many of the upvotes in this are being done out of an assessment of the interestingness of well-writtenness of a comment rather than disagreement. If this weren’t the case I would expect boring and obviously untrue statements to be at the top, instead the top comments are interesting and more boring ones are hovering around zero.
I suspect upvoting comments you enjoy reading becomes reflexive in long time users, so overriding that instinct requires conscious system 2 effort.
Just want to make sure I’m understanding the terminology. Saying I’m 10% confident of proposition X is equivalent to saying I’m 90% confident in not-X, right?
Yes. However, since the point of the game is to display beliefs that you hold and others don’t, you should choose the phrasing that makes your confidence higher than LW’s. That is: if you think other LWers are 5% confident of X, then you should say you’re 10% confident of X; and if you think other LWers are 15% confident of X, then you should say you’re 90% confident of not-X.
Meta-discussion Comment
I suspect many of the upvotes in this are being done out of an assessment of the interestingness of well-writtenness of a comment rather than disagreement. If this weren’t the case I would expect boring and obviously untrue statements to be at the top, instead the top comments are interesting and more boring ones are hovering around zero.
I suspect upvoting comments you enjoy reading becomes reflexive in long time users, so overriding that instinct requires conscious system 2 effort.
Just want to make sure I’m understanding the terminology. Saying I’m 10% confident of proposition X is equivalent to saying I’m 90% confident in not-X, right?
Yes. However, since the point of the game is to display beliefs that you hold and others don’t, you should choose the phrasing that makes your confidence higher than LW’s. That is: if you think other LWers are 5% confident of X, then you should say you’re 10% confident of X; and if you think other LWers are 15% confident of X, then you should say you’re 90% confident of not-X.
Thanks Hariant!