I think you’ve got Benquo wrong on what the ads are saying. He’s saying they are reinforcing that (a) you have to wear masks, and (b) if you wear masks you’re a sheeple. It’s like an authoritarian beating a member of the populace for not wearing the right uniform, saying both “You have to wear this uniform because you’re scum, and scum should wear this uniform.”
Or for a more vivid example, it’s like Tilda Swinton in Snowpiercer telling the people at the back of the train that they have to be at the back because order is important and everyone should be in their allotted station. “Know your place. Keep your place. Be a shoe.” It’s not propaganda, in some sense it’s anti-propaganda for being at the back, but she’s resting on her power to keep you at the back, and on top of that beating you down with a narrative that you deserve it.
To spell it out, Benquo is pointing out that saying “scummy people have to wear masks” is an obviously bad ad to cause people to wear masks. The response he got was “Hey, this ad sounds to me like it’s saying you have to wear masks, why are you criticizing it?” and the (fairly plausible) story he has for why is that people are pretty used to the pro-mask establishment sneering at those who they can force to wear masks.
Added: You might object to the inference that “Masks are like opinions / Everyone should have one.” has the implication that asshole people have to wear masks. At the very least you can see how it’s “speaking down”. Like, you can do way more positive mask ads that would say “Masks are a simple invention that save lives” or even “Good, kind, warm people wear masks to help protect others”. But the one Ben saw is at least snarky and in my mind does independently bring up the “Opinions are like assholes” line, and does feel kinda sneering to me. Just because most people don’t notice the sneering tone if you point it out to them doesn’t mean it’s not there, I think people can get used to not seeing things they’re not supposed to be seeing.
I think it’s very likely that the people who made the ads are deliberately alluding to “opinions are like assholes”. And very unlikely that their intention is to say “masks are like assholes”. I think what they’re trying to do is to deliver a little surprise, a little punchline. You see “X are like opinions”, some bit of your brain is expecting a rude criticism, and oh! it turns out they’re saying something positive about X and something positive about having opinions. So (they hope) the reader gets a pleasant surprise and is a bit more willing to pay attention and a bit more likely to remember.
Whether any of that works is another question. It may be that the subtext that actually comes through is, after all, “masks are like assholes”. (That’s clearly what came through for Ben, but I suggest that maybe Ben is strongly predisposed to see hostile authoritarianism in certain contexts of which this is one.) It might be an incompetently made ad. But that is not at all the same thing as an ad that is trying to degrade and humiliate, and it is not at all the same thing as an ostensibly pro-mask ad that is really “anti-mask propaganda”.
It’s not that when the people behind the ad sat down and asked “What are we trying to do?”, they twirled their mustaches and said “I know! Let’s degrade and humiliate!”. It’s about what bleeds through about their attitude when they “try to get people to wear masks”, which they fail to catch.
For example, if a microwave salesman said “Microwaves are like women. Great in the kitchen!”, you don’t have to reject the idea that they’re trying to sell microwaves to notice what their ad implies about their perspective on women. Maybe it’s incompetence that they’d love to fix if anyone informs them about why it might not be the most universally non-offensive line to use, but it still shows something about how they view women.
However, if they use this line at a feminist convention, and they aren’t paid on commission… and you don’t quickly hear “Oops! Sorry, I fucked up!”… it starts to say something not just about his perspectives on women, but also his ability and/or inclination to take into account the perspectives of his target audience. The more the context makes the offensiveness difficult to miss, the harder it becomes to believe that the person is trying oh so hard to be not offensive so that they can sell microwaves, and the more it starts to seem like provoking offense and failing to sell microwaves is something they’re at least indifferent to, if not actively enjoying.
So when someone says “Masks are like opinions” and reminds you that opinions are like assholes (and stinky assholes at that, which the full saying specifies), right before encouraging you to have an opinion, it’s pretty hard to hear that as expressing “I’d love to hear your opinion!”? Do you really think that’s the best way they can think to convey their heart-felt attitude of “Let’s all expose our opinions to each other so that we can share their contents and take them in!”? Or do you notice that they went out of their way to point at “No one wants that shit, so keep it hidden behind multiple layers”, and then didn’t disclaim that interpretation, and infer that maybe the fact that this slipped past their filters signals that “We’re not interested in your dissent” isn’t actually something they’re trying super hard to avoid signalling?
Keep in mind, this isn’t some “orthogonal” failure mode that makes for a small deviation from an otherwise good ad—the way “simple oversight” predicts. The people who aren’t wearing masks have actively formed an opinion on the topic which contradicts the idea of wearing masks. The anti-mask sentiment is *explicitly* about giving the finger to an authority who they see as trying to condescend to them while sneering at them, and the ad that is “trying” to combat this literally associates their opinions with shit—while portraying itself as supportive, no less. It is quite literally the exact wrong signal to send if you want to get people to wear masks, so as far as “simple oversights” go, it’d have to be an amazing one. However, it is dead nuts center of what “alignment failure of the type pointed at by anti-maskers” predicts.
“Masks = assholes” is just the wrong explanation for the valid observation that there’s an “Eat shit” vibe coming through.
After hitting “submit” I realized that “alignment failure” is upstream of this divergence of analyses.
By “alignment failure”, I mean “the thing they are optimizing for isn’t aligned with the thing they claim to be optimizing for”. It’s a bit “agnostic” on the cause of this, because the cause isn’t so clearly separable into “evil vs incompetent”. Alignment failure happens by default, and it takes active work to avoid.
Goodharting is an example. Maybe you think “Well, COVID kills people, so we want people to not get COVID, so… let’s fine people for positive COVID tests!”. Okay, sure, that might work if you have mandatory testing. If you have voluntary testing though, that just incentivizes people to not get tested, which will probably make things worse. At this point, someone could complain that you’re aiming to make COVID *look* like it’s not a problem, not actually aiming to solve the problem. They will be right in that this is the direction your interventions are pointing, *even if you didn’t mean to and don’t like it*. In order to actually help keep people healthy and COVID free, you have to keep your eyes on the prize and adjust your aim point as necessary. In order to aim at aiming to keep people healthy and COVID free, you have to keep your eyes on the prize of alignment, and act to correct things when you see that your method of aiming is no longer keeping convergence.
When it comes to things like pro-mask advertisements, it’s oversimplifying to say “It’s an honest mistake” and it’s *also* oversimplifying to say “They WANT to exercise power, not save lives” (hopefully). The question is where, *exactly* the alignment between stated goals and effects break. And the way to tell is to try different interventions and see what happens.
What happens if you say “All I got from your ad was ‘eat shit’! Go to hell you evil condescending jerk!”? Do they look genuinely surprised and say “Shoot, I’m so sorry. I definitely care about your opinion and I have no idea how I came off that way. Can you please explain so that I can see where I went wrong and make it more clear that my respect for your opinion and autonomy is genuine?”?
Do they think “Hm. This person seems to think that I’m condescending to him, and I don’t want them to think that, yet I notice that I’m not surprised. Is it true? Do I have to check my inner alignment to the goal of saving lives, and maybe humble myself somewhat?”
What if you state the case more politely? What if you go out of your way to explain it in a way that makes it easy for them to continue to see themselves as good people, while also making it unmistakable that remaining a “good person who cares about saving lives” requires running ads which don’t leak contempt? Do they change the ad, mind how they’re coming off and how they’re feeling more closely, and thank you for helping them out? Or do they try making up nonsense to justify things before finally admitting “Okay, I don’t actually care about people I just like being a jerk”?
My own answer is that the contempt is likely real. It’s likely something they aren’t very aware of, but that they likely would be if they were motivated to find these things. It’s likely that they are not so virtuous and committed to alignment to their stated goals of being a good person that you can rudely shove this in their face and have them fix their mistakes. If you play the part of someone being stomped on, and cast them as a stomper, they will play into the role you’ve cast them in while dismissing the idea that they’re doing it. How evil!
However, it’s also overwhelmingly likely that if you sit down with them and see them for where they’re at, and explain things in a way that makes it feel okay to be who they are and shows them *how* they can be more of who they want to see themselves as being, they’ll choose to better align themselves and be grateful for the help. If you play the part of someone who recognizes their good intent and who recognizes that there are causal reasons which are beyond them for all of their failures, and cast them in the role of someone who is virtuous enough to choose good… they’ll probably still choose to play the part you cast them in.
That’s why it’s not “Simple mistake, nothing to see here” and also not “They’re doing it on purpose, those irredeemable bastards!”. It’s kinda “accidentally on purpose”. You can’t just point at what they did on purpose and expect them to change because they did in fact “do it on purpose” (in a sense). You *can*, however, point out the accident of how they allowed their purpose to become misaligned (if you know how to do so), and expect that to work.
Aligning ourselves (and others) with good takes active work, and active re-aiming, both of object level goals and meta-goals of what we’re aiming for. Framing things as either “innocent mistakes” or “purposeful actions of coherent agents” misses the important opportunity to realign and teach alignment
Some optimizer computed by a human brain is doing it on purpose. I agree that it seems desirable to be able to coherently and nonvacuously say that this is generally not something the person wants. I tried to lay out a principled model that distinguishes between perverse and humane optimization in Civil Law and Political Drama.
So your suggestion of what’s going on introduces an important divergence from what Ben and Ben have been saying (unless I missed it, in which case my apologies to them). You’re suggesting that the ad is hostile (as Ben also proposes) but that the hostility is towards non-mask-wearers and that what it’s suggesting is asshole-like is their anti-masking opinions.
This is much more plausible psychologically than what (if I understand right) Ben was proposing. Benquo described the ad as “anti-mask propaganda” and as “trying to degrade and humiliate mask-wearers”. Ben Pace suggests that the people making the ad want to degrade “the people their coalition is forcing to wear masks”. And I don’t think any of that makes psychological sense. But, yes, it’s possible that the people making please-mask ads are (consciously or not) hostile towards people who don’t want to wear masks.
I think this hypothesis is a plausible alternative to mine where they’re not trying to be hostile but intend to point up a contrast between what they say and the old joke about assholes. But it isn’t compatible with Ben’s characterization of his complaint about the ads as “complaining about anti-mask propaganda”: if you’re right then the ads are very much not anti-mask propaganda.
Right, it sounds like you mostly get what I’m saying.
I’d quibble that “the people their coalition is forcing to wear masks” are the anti-maskers (since pro-maskers are being nice and obedient, and therefore aren’t being “forced”). It’s pretty easy to slip into contempt for people not respecting your well-deserved authoritah, so that even when they start doing it you think “About fucking time!” and judge them for not doing it earlier or more enthusiastically, instead of showing gratitude for the fact that they’re moving in the right direction. I know I’ve been guilty of it in the past.
I don’t mean to imply that the people behind the ads are to be seen as shitty people, or in this light alone, and I think in the course of describing this perspective which I viewed as needing to be conveyed I may have failed to make that clear. I do actually agree with your take on what they see themselves as doing, and that it’s not entirely illegitimate.
I responded to my own comment trying to lay out better what I meant exactly by “alignment failure” and how “they’re not (meta) trying to be hostile” and “they’re trying to humiliate and degrade” aren’t actually mutually exclusive.
For what it’s worth, I didn’t take you to be asserting that the people behind the ads are shitty people (either unconditionally or conditional on your conjecture about their motives being correct).
Thanks for the feedback. To be clear, I didn’t mean that I inferred that you took it that way, just that after I finished writing I realized I was doing the “pretty critical of people for doing very normal things” thing, and that it often comes off that way if I’m not careful to credibly disclaim that interpretation.
The mask ads are produced by the MTA as part of a campaign whose overt (and, I think, real) goal is to get people to wear masks.
Therefore, they are not in fact anti-mask propaganda.
Ben may of course argue, perhaps correctly, that the attitude revealed by the ads is authoritarian and unpleasant and that for some people this makes the ads have an anti-mask effect. But that doesn’t mean the ads are “trying to degrade and humiliate mask-wearers”; maybe they have that effect but for that to be their intention the relevant people at the MTA would have to be moustache-twirling villains plotting “so, we will break their spirits and then they will be easier to control, bwahahahaha”, which is just not plausible.
(Alternatively, it’s possible that the people at the MTA wanted pro-mask ads, and they engaged an advertising agency that’s full of mask-haters who decided to subvert the message they were asked to promote by making superficially pro-mask but more subtly anti-mask advertisements. I do not find this plausible either; I think advertising agencies are too attached to making money to risk pissing off a major customer by doing that.)
If Ben had been complaining that the ads will put a lot of people off and therefore are bad ads and been met with incomprehension—which, to be clear, I think he quite likely would have been—then he’d be right to suggest that something bad is going on in the heads of the people failing to understand him. But I think it’d be something much simpler and less exciting than “regarding the dramatic authoritarianism of making people do things they don’t want to as the principal benefit of masks”. (Namely, that most people are pretty stupid and have trouble understanding any position on a thing X more complicated than “yay X” and “boo X”, and are liable to round everything to one of those or the other.)
In any case, again, that isn’t what Ben said. He said: “Seems like they’re now trying to degrade and humiliate mask-wearers”. Which is obviously wrong, and that rounding-things-off heuristic is particularly likely to happen when faced with someone who seems to be saying something stupid. In this case, though, I don’t think even that is what happened. I think the one person on whose response he seems to be basing this paranoid theory about what ‘the “pro-mask position”’ is really about, was making a perfectly valid point. Ben says, or appears to be saying: look at these ads, they say you should wear a mask and be silent, obviously this is an attempt to degrade and humiliate mask-wearers. She says: no, the “be silent” bit has a simpler and less sinister explanation: there’s an actual public-health benefit. All she’s guilty of here is not picking up on the other things Ben sees as evidence of an attempt to degrade and humiliate.
Again: all this seems like a clear instance of the “explicit X & implicit Y yield Z, therefore those who say X believe Z”. Y is “my interpretation of the subtext of these ads is correct”. Even if Ben is right about the subtext—if e.g. the MTA really is full of moustache-twirling villains, or their ad agency of anti-MTA anti-mask-requirement subversives—I claim it is perfectly possible for a reasonable person to fail to appreciate this, and that this is a much more likely explanation for their not grasping Ben’s point than that they’re part of the Great Authoritarian-Sadomasochistic Collective Conspiracy that Ben is trying to portray.
I don’t think it’s necessary to believe that “the MTA really is full of moustache-twirling villains” in order to believe that sometimes they’re mean to people on purpose. This is a normal thing that normal people do and doesn’t require someone to be totally committed at all times to evil. The interesting problem is not that someone was mean, but that the factional imperative to be pro-mask and anti-anti-mask effectively functions to provides cover for this, so that as part of their display of factional loyalty people refuse to recognize that someone did something mean.
Sure, people can be deliberately mean without being moustache-twirling villains. But the particular kind of deliberate meanness that you seem to be hypothesizing here seems pretty moustache-twirly.
Normally when people are deliberately mean to others without being moustache-twirling villains it’s (1) because they particularly dislike those other people or (2) because there is some concrete benefit to them from being mean.
In the present case, you’re suggesting that the MTA put out advertisements that intentionally had subtexts like “hey you, mask-wearers, eat shit”. Is it plausible that the MTA (or their executives, or the people running their ad campaigns) particularly dislike their customers as a whole, or specifically their customers who wear masks in order to reduce the spread of disease on the trains? Not to me. Is there some other concrete benefit the MTA (or etc.) would get from making their customers (as a whole, or etc.) feel bad? Not that I can see.
What’s the actual psychological process you envisage here, and why do you find it plausible?
I guess people are mean because it moves them up in the pecking order, or prevents them from moving down, and they think it’s safer to be an aggressor than a victim. Since scolding people for maybe not wearing masks is a protected behavior, they can get away with more meanness, with less discernment, than in other contexts. I don’t fully understand why this gives people cover for being mean to mask-wearers in the name of pro-mask propaganda, but it seems to be the case. This seems like part of the same phenomenon: https://reductress.com/post/how-governor-cuomo-once-a-soft-sidepiece-snapped-into-a-dom-daddy-i-would-let-choke-me/
Even a similar focus on allowing the dominator to constrict your breathing!
My best guess is that being mean to people is considered part of the process by which you take care of them, since it’s part of the process of giving orders, as I sketched out in Civil Law and Political Drama, much like frame-controlling them is, as Vaniver pointed out here and here.
I don’t think at any point here you’ve managed to say the thing I think is happening, and you’ve repeatedly avoided it.
This paragraph is a miss at stating what I would say is going on at the MTA (and also what I think Ben would say):
Ben may of course argue, perhaps correctly, that the attitude revealed by the ads is authoritarian and unpleasant and that for some people this makes the ads have an anti-mask effect. But that doesn’t mean the ads are “trying to degrade and humiliate mask-wearers”; maybe they have that effect but for that to be their intention the relevant people at the MTA would have to be moustache-twirling villains plotting “so, we will break their spirits and then they will be easier to control, bwahahahaha”, which is just not plausible.
It’s not hard for me to imagine Tilda Swinton’s character telling her underlings to create wall-ads for sustaining order, and that they pick things like “Keep Order. Know your place. Be a shoe!” In this world would you also be arguing “Well the overt goal is to keep order, why would you assume it’s to degrade and humiliate the people?” I think you’d probably agree that inside their heads they’re looking for slogans that are degrading.
Like, my straw model of you right now is saying “Well either people are good, or they’re bad, and for someone to do something intentionally mean or unkind, must mean they are BAD PEOPLE, and are also bad in that they have mustaches that they twirl. I observe no moustaches, therefore they did not have this bad intention.”
Whereas I’m saying “sometimes groups of advanced monkeys can (amongst them many fine things they do) support false narratives about the group (e.g. companies that think they’re doing great then suddenly fail) and they can also systematically protect the powerful whilst otherwise trying to get on with their lives, and they can also systematically be unfair and kind of unethical to an outgroup whilst otherwise doing lots of fine things in the world.”
People are mixes of emotions and impulses, and people in groups can be especially blind to their impulses. I don’t get why it’s psychologically unimaginable to you to think that the people making mask ads kind of want to degrade the people their coalition is forcing to wear masks, and that they picked a nominally pro-mask slogan because it does so, or that their lack of moustaches all but proves that they cannot have this intention.
If “you’ve repeatedly avoided it” is meant to mean “I think you know what is actually going on and are going out of your way not to say it”, then I deny that charge. I may well be wrong about what is going on, but I promise I am not being insincere about it.
My apologies for popular-culture-ignorance, but I don’t know what “Tilda Swinton’s character” is meant to convey. Am I supposed to imagine a moustache-twirling evil dictator, or a well-meaning dictator, or a faceless bureaucrat, or what? Unfortunately, not knowing what scenario you’re asking me to imagine I don’t think I can usefully comment on whether I would agree that “inside their heads they’re looking for slogans that are degrading”; if they’re saying things like “know your place, be a shoe” then it sure sounds as if they are, but that also sounds to me like some combination of moustache-twirling villainy and deliberate subversion; I don’t think real people who aren’t actively trying to make others’ lives worse say things like “know your place, be a shoe”. But, again, maybe there’s some specific movie I’m supposed to be thinking of here that would make this all clearer?
(I had a look at Swinton’s filmography. The most obviously-relevant thing here is that she played the White Witch in a Narnia movie. That’s pretty much a moustache-twirling role, modulo the absence of moustaches for obvious biological reasons.)
Your straw model of me is indeed made of straw. It’s not obvious to me why you would ascribe the particular stupidities to me that you ascribe to straw-me, so I’m not sure how to respond to them. People don’t divided neatly into Good and Bad, obviously, and my point is exactly that what’s being hypothesized here seems to me like the sort that fictional Bad characters do and real people with real motives generally don’t. Not because real people are Good and never do anything bad; because the particular sort of badness being proposed seems to me fiction-like. “Moustache-twirling” is meant to gesture at that, not to indicate that I think it matters whether they have moustaches. (Duh, obviously. But how else am I supposed to respond to the last couple of sentences in that paragraph?)
I agree, of course, that sometimes people (or groups of people) can be systematically unfair and unethical to an outgroup. But I don’t see what outgroup you have in mind (“all our passengers”? “all our passengers who wear masks”?) and I don’t see what specifically you think would lead to the specific kind of obnoxiousness-to-that-outgroup that’s being proposed here.
It’s not that I think it’s impossible that “the people making mask ads kind of want to degrade the people their coalition is forcing to wear masks”. Of course it’s possible. What I don’t see is why it’s plausible; why that particular hypothesis should be regarded as a good explanation for anything; why it’s better than, say, “the people making these mask ads happen to have a sexual fetish that makes them feel like comparing masks to assholes will be pleasantly exciting for their audience” (which I think is extremely unlikely, even though people not infrequently have fetishes, and seems to me roughly on a par with your proposal in terms of plausibility) or “the people making these mask ads are specifically intending a contrast with the old joke about assholes and intend that ‘everyonie should have one’ will be a pleasant surprise for their audience” (which I think is actually probably correct) or “the people making these mask ads just somehow never thought of the old joke about assholes at all” (which seems unlikely even though people often miss things that you’d think obvious, but no more unlikely than your proposal).
Your straw model of me is indeed made of straw. It’s not obvious to me why you would ascribe the particular stupidities to me that you ascribe to straw-me, so I’m not sure how to respond to them. People don’t divided neatly into Good and Bad, obviously, and my point is exactly that what’s being hypothesized here seems to me like the sort that fictional Bad characters do and real people with real motives generally don’t.
Like, no, what’s being hypothesized here is just that the people at the organization are a part of a broader semi-authoritarian attempt to control a population, and that insofar as that is happening, they’re playing their role, which is to kind of not notice whilst also doing a reasonably good job at their part. This is pretty normal.
The truth is I’m not that confident of this interpretation of this particular ad, I could definitely learn evidence that would change my mind, it’s not that hard to get counter-evidence for such stories. But I feel like you haven’t once entertained this hypothesis and argued against it, you’ve just said “I don’t see it”, this is “obviously wrong”, and “the particular kind of deliberate meanness that you seem to be hypothesizing here seems pretty moustache-twirly”. The story we’re talking about seems to be a super common one to me throughout societies, and I guess I feel like you haven’t made an argument against it happening here other than one based on your own disbelief.[1]
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You seem most hung up on the phrase “anti-mask propaganda”, like when you say “The mask ads are produced by the MTA as part of a campaign whose overt (and, I think, real) goal is to get people to wear masks… Therefore, they are not in fact anti-mask propaganda”.
Why are the ads anti-mask propaganda? Because both ads straightforwardly make me less likely to wear a mask in a public setting or when asked to by someone else. The ad “Masks speak louder than words” suggests to me “This is a signal about what team you are on” and I detest people forcing tribal signals on me. This ad makes me care more about signaling to others that I do not care very much about mask-wearing because otherwise I feel I am being co-opted to signal in a political game. As an ad, it decreases my willingness to wear a mask. And I further think that the cognitive processes that led to these slogans being picked were picking it for tribal reasons and were happy to pick slogans that marginally reduced people’s chance of wearing masks in order to stomp on people more in a plausibly-deniable way.
It seems fairly plausible (i.e. somewhere in 10%-70%) that not one person focused their entire consciousnesses on creating anti-mask propaganda like the moustache-twirling villains you mentioned, but it seems to me quite likely that whatever sub-process ran in their brain essentially searched for an ad that gets away as looking like pro-mask propaganda while in fact just stomping on people, in a way that is functionally anti-mask propaganda.
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One line replies:
If “you’ve repeatedly avoided it” is meant to mean “I think you know what is actually going on and are going out of your way not to say it”, then I deny that charge. I may well be wrong about what is going on, but I promise I am not being insincere about it.
No, I just felt like you kept talking around it, I didn’t mean you seemed obviously insincere.
I don’t know what “Tilda Swinton’s character” is meant to convey
Alas! In my first comment upthread I referenced her character in the movie Snowpiercer and linked to a video of her giving a key tone-setting speech in the film.
An argument could look like, for example: “Here is a nearby institution that has clear markers of being pretty resistant to this sort of authoritarian stuff, which is reason to expect the MTA is too, so your story here doesn’t match my picture of the world.”
So, first of all, my apologies for missing where you said what Tilda Swinton character you had in mind. I remark that said character almost-literally is a moustache-twirling villain: in the scene you link to, we watch her smiling smugly while a man is being tortured for stepping out of his Ordained Place and going on about how she naturally belongs on top and they naturally belong trodden underfoot. All of which is consonant with (although, of course, not proof of the rightness of) my sense that the sort of thing being described here is more characteristic of Movie Bad Guys than of anything common in the real world.
I think part of what is going on here is that to me it looks like you and other-Ben are doing what Eliezer dubbed “privileging the hypothesis”. To be clear, I am sure that it seems entirely otherwise to both of you, and what is actually going here is that we have different underlying models of the world that make different hypotheses seem particularly plausible: to me, your-and-Benquo’s model looks paranoid; to you, my model looks naïve.
It’s true that I haven’t given concrete evidence against the Ben-squared interpretation; but it’s also true that neither of you has given evidence for it, so far as I can see. It’s not really the sort of thing for which concrete evidence is easy to come by. You say “it’s not that hard to get counter-evidence for such stories”, but I don’t know on what basis you say so. You give an example in a footnote of what counter-evidence might look like, but I don’t really know what “clear markers of being pretty resistant to this sort of authoritarian stuff” would look like if present, and it seems like there’s an underlying assumption here that institutions should be assumed malevolently authoritarian unless they have “clear markers of being pretty resistant”, which is part of what I am disputing. I genuinely cannot think of anything I could do that would—even conditional on my being absolutely correct about what’s going on here—take less than say two hours of work and give more than say a 25% chance of providing concrete evidence that my interpretation is better than yours.
You quote me as saying “I don’t see it” and “obviously wrong” and “seems pretty moustache-twirly”. In contrast, you are much more focused on concrete evidence, saying that your interpretation of things “is pretty normal”[1], “seems to be super common”, that “I further think that” [reiteration of the theory], and “it seems to me quite likely that” [reiteration of the theory]”. Benquo, in the OP, mostly just states his interpretation as if it were an obvious matter of fact: “the obvious transitive implication”, “the thinly-veiled message is”, “its explicit content is”[2], “anti-mask propaganda”, etc.
[1] What you say is “pretty normal” is something weaker than what you and Benquo are claiming in the present case, something like “there is an ongoing semi-authoritarian attempt to control a population, and the people involved are kinda-unconsciously-deliberately not noticing this while doing their part to help it”.
[2] No, its explicit content isn’t, any more than saying “actions speak louder than words” and urging someone to act is a form of silencing.
It seems to me as if you and Benquo are making assertions about these people’s motives on the basis of no concrete evidence, and then complaining of my unreasonableness when I say that those assertions seem implausible to me on the basis of no concrete evidence. Shouldn’t we have a consistent standard here?
I think it’s a dirty rhetorical move to take “Ben said X and drew important conclusions from it, and you keep pointing out that the facts are not consistent with X” and express it as “you seem hung up on X”. Be that as it may, I think it is an abuse of language to call something “anti-mask propaganda” when it is intended as pro-mask propaganda merely because it has the effect of making some people less inclined to wear masks.
I remark that your paragraph beginning “It seems fairly plausible” is, stated a little differently, saying that you estimate a 30-90% chance that someone involved in the making of those ads did in fact “focus their entire consciousness on creating anti-mask propaganda like a moustache-twirling villain”. Really?
(One other remark: the contempt you hypothesize at the MTA for the people they’re aiming their ads at seems no greater than the contempt you and Benquo seem to feel for the people you’re criticizing. Maybe I should be taking this as evidence for a general “there’s a lot of contempt around” hypothesis, but in any case it feels like it’s worth drawing some attention to because something seems off to me about saying what amounts to “look how contemptible these people are, for treating other people as contemptible”.)
I think you’ve got Benquo wrong on what the ads are saying. He’s saying they are reinforcing that (a) you have to wear masks, and (b) if you wear masks you’re a sheeple. It’s like an authoritarian beating a member of the populace for not wearing the right uniform, saying both “You have to wear this uniform because you’re scum, and scum should wear this uniform.”
Or for a more vivid example, it’s like Tilda Swinton in Snowpiercer telling the people at the back of the train that they have to be at the back because order is important and everyone should be in their allotted station. “Know your place. Keep your place. Be a shoe.” It’s not propaganda, in some sense it’s anti-propaganda for being at the back, but she’s resting on her power to keep you at the back, and on top of that beating you down with a narrative that you deserve it.
To spell it out, Benquo is pointing out that saying “scummy people have to wear masks” is an obviously bad ad to cause people to wear masks. The response he got was “Hey, this ad sounds to me like it’s saying you have to wear masks, why are you criticizing it?” and the (fairly plausible) story he has for why is that people are pretty used to the pro-mask establishment sneering at those who they can force to wear masks.
Added: You might object to the inference that “Masks are like opinions / Everyone should have one.” has the implication that asshole people have to wear masks. At the very least you can see how it’s “speaking down”. Like, you can do way more positive mask ads that would say “Masks are a simple invention that save lives” or even “Good, kind, warm people wear masks to help protect others”. But the one Ben saw is at least snarky and in my mind does independently bring up the “Opinions are like assholes” line, and does feel kinda sneering to me. Just because most people don’t notice the sneering tone if you point it out to them doesn’t mean it’s not there, I think people can get used to not seeing things they’re not supposed to be seeing.
I got “masks are like assholes” from the sentence, even before I read the Ben’s analysis.
I think it’s very likely that the people who made the ads are deliberately alluding to “opinions are like assholes”. And very unlikely that their intention is to say “masks are like assholes”. I think what they’re trying to do is to deliver a little surprise, a little punchline. You see “X are like opinions”, some bit of your brain is expecting a rude criticism, and oh! it turns out they’re saying something positive about X and something positive about having opinions. So (they hope) the reader gets a pleasant surprise and is a bit more willing to pay attention and a bit more likely to remember.
Whether any of that works is another question. It may be that the subtext that actually comes through is, after all, “masks are like assholes”. (That’s clearly what came through for Ben, but I suggest that maybe Ben is strongly predisposed to see hostile authoritarianism in certain contexts of which this is one.) It might be an incompetently made ad. But that is not at all the same thing as an ad that is trying to degrade and humiliate, and it is not at all the same thing as an ostensibly pro-mask ad that is really “anti-mask propaganda”.
It’s not that when the people behind the ad sat down and asked “What are we trying to do?”, they twirled their mustaches and said “I know! Let’s degrade and humiliate!”. It’s about what bleeds through about their attitude when they “try to get people to wear masks”, which they fail to catch.
For example, if a microwave salesman said “Microwaves are like women. Great in the kitchen!”, you don’t have to reject the idea that they’re trying to sell microwaves to notice what their ad implies about their perspective on women. Maybe it’s incompetence that they’d love to fix if anyone informs them about why it might not be the most universally non-offensive line to use, but it still shows something about how they view women.
However, if they use this line at a feminist convention, and they aren’t paid on commission… and you don’t quickly hear “Oops! Sorry, I fucked up!”… it starts to say something not just about his perspectives on women, but also his ability and/or inclination to take into account the perspectives of his target audience. The more the context makes the offensiveness difficult to miss, the harder it becomes to believe that the person is trying oh so hard to be not offensive so that they can sell microwaves, and the more it starts to seem like provoking offense and failing to sell microwaves is something they’re at least indifferent to, if not actively enjoying.
So when someone says “Masks are like opinions” and reminds you that opinions are like assholes (and stinky assholes at that, which the full saying specifies), right before encouraging you to have an opinion, it’s pretty hard to hear that as expressing “I’d love to hear your opinion!”? Do you really think that’s the best way they can think to convey their heart-felt attitude of “Let’s all expose our opinions to each other so that we can share their contents and take them in!”? Or do you notice that they went out of their way to point at “No one wants that shit, so keep it hidden behind multiple layers”, and then didn’t disclaim that interpretation, and infer that maybe the fact that this slipped past their filters signals that “We’re not interested in your dissent” isn’t actually something they’re trying super hard to avoid signalling?
Keep in mind, this isn’t some “orthogonal” failure mode that makes for a small deviation from an otherwise good ad—the way “simple oversight” predicts. The people who aren’t wearing masks have actively formed an opinion on the topic which contradicts the idea of wearing masks. The anti-mask sentiment is *explicitly* about giving the finger to an authority who they see as trying to condescend to them while sneering at them, and the ad that is “trying” to combat this literally associates their opinions with shit—while portraying itself as supportive, no less. It is quite literally the exact wrong signal to send if you want to get people to wear masks, so as far as “simple oversights” go, it’d have to be an amazing one. However, it is dead nuts center of what “alignment failure of the type pointed at by anti-maskers” predicts.
“Masks = assholes” is just the wrong explanation for the valid observation that there’s an “Eat shit” vibe coming through.
After hitting “submit” I realized that “alignment failure” is upstream of this divergence of analyses.
By “alignment failure”, I mean “the thing they are optimizing for isn’t aligned with the thing they claim to be optimizing for”. It’s a bit “agnostic” on the cause of this, because the cause isn’t so clearly separable into “evil vs incompetent”. Alignment failure happens by default, and it takes active work to avoid.
Goodharting is an example. Maybe you think “Well, COVID kills people, so we want people to not get COVID, so… let’s fine people for positive COVID tests!”. Okay, sure, that might work if you have mandatory testing. If you have voluntary testing though, that just incentivizes people to not get tested, which will probably make things worse. At this point, someone could complain that you’re aiming to make COVID *look* like it’s not a problem, not actually aiming to solve the problem. They will be right in that this is the direction your interventions are pointing, *even if you didn’t mean to and don’t like it*. In order to actually help keep people healthy and COVID free, you have to keep your eyes on the prize and adjust your aim point as necessary. In order to aim at aiming to keep people healthy and COVID free, you have to keep your eyes on the prize of alignment, and act to correct things when you see that your method of aiming is no longer keeping convergence.
When it comes to things like pro-mask advertisements, it’s oversimplifying to say “It’s an honest mistake” and it’s *also* oversimplifying to say “They WANT to exercise power, not save lives” (hopefully). The question is where, *exactly* the alignment between stated goals and effects break. And the way to tell is to try different interventions and see what happens.
What happens if you say “All I got from your ad was ‘eat shit’! Go to hell you evil condescending jerk!”? Do they look genuinely surprised and say “Shoot, I’m so sorry. I definitely care about your opinion and I have no idea how I came off that way. Can you please explain so that I can see where I went wrong and make it more clear that my respect for your opinion and autonomy is genuine?”?
Do they think “Hm. This person seems to think that I’m condescending to him, and I don’t want them to think that, yet I notice that I’m not surprised. Is it true? Do I have to check my inner alignment to the goal of saving lives, and maybe humble myself somewhat?”
What if you state the case more politely? What if you go out of your way to explain it in a way that makes it easy for them to continue to see themselves as good people, while also making it unmistakable that remaining a “good person who cares about saving lives” requires running ads which don’t leak contempt? Do they change the ad, mind how they’re coming off and how they’re feeling more closely, and thank you for helping them out? Or do they try making up nonsense to justify things before finally admitting “Okay, I don’t actually care about people I just like being a jerk”?
My own answer is that the contempt is likely real. It’s likely something they aren’t very aware of, but that they likely would be if they were motivated to find these things. It’s likely that they are not so virtuous and committed to alignment to their stated goals of being a good person that you can rudely shove this in their face and have them fix their mistakes. If you play the part of someone being stomped on, and cast them as a stomper, they will play into the role you’ve cast them in while dismissing the idea that they’re doing it. How evil!
However, it’s also overwhelmingly likely that if you sit down with them and see them for where they’re at, and explain things in a way that makes it feel okay to be who they are and shows them *how* they can be more of who they want to see themselves as being, they’ll choose to better align themselves and be grateful for the help. If you play the part of someone who recognizes their good intent and who recognizes that there are causal reasons which are beyond them for all of their failures, and cast them in the role of someone who is virtuous enough to choose good… they’ll probably still choose to play the part you cast them in.
That’s why it’s not “Simple mistake, nothing to see here” and also not “They’re doing it on purpose, those irredeemable bastards!”. It’s kinda “accidentally on purpose”. You can’t just point at what they did on purpose and expect them to change because they did in fact “do it on purpose” (in a sense). You *can*, however, point out the accident of how they allowed their purpose to become misaligned (if you know how to do so), and expect that to work.
Aligning ourselves (and others) with good takes active work, and active re-aiming, both of object level goals and meta-goals of what we’re aiming for. Framing things as either “innocent mistakes” or “purposeful actions of coherent agents” misses the important opportunity to realign and teach alignment
Some optimizer computed by a human brain is doing it on purpose. I agree that it seems desirable to be able to coherently and nonvacuously say that this is generally not something the person wants. I tried to lay out a principled model that distinguishes between perverse and humane optimization in Civil Law and Political Drama.
So your suggestion of what’s going on introduces an important divergence from what Ben and Ben have been saying (unless I missed it, in which case my apologies to them). You’re suggesting that the ad is hostile (as Ben also proposes) but that the hostility is towards non-mask-wearers and that what it’s suggesting is asshole-like is their anti-masking opinions.
This is much more plausible psychologically than what (if I understand right) Ben was proposing. Benquo described the ad as “anti-mask propaganda” and as “trying to degrade and humiliate mask-wearers”. Ben Pace suggests that the people making the ad want to degrade “the people their coalition is forcing to wear masks”. And I don’t think any of that makes psychological sense. But, yes, it’s possible that the people making please-mask ads are (consciously or not) hostile towards people who don’t want to wear masks.
I think this hypothesis is a plausible alternative to mine where they’re not trying to be hostile but intend to point up a contrast between what they say and the old joke about assholes. But it isn’t compatible with Ben’s characterization of his complaint about the ads as “complaining about anti-mask propaganda”: if you’re right then the ads are very much not anti-mask propaganda.
Right, it sounds like you mostly get what I’m saying.
I’d quibble that “the people their coalition is forcing to wear masks” are the anti-maskers (since pro-maskers are being nice and obedient, and therefore aren’t being “forced”). It’s pretty easy to slip into contempt for people not respecting your well-deserved authoritah, so that even when they start doing it you think “About fucking time!” and judge them for not doing it earlier or more enthusiastically, instead of showing gratitude for the fact that they’re moving in the right direction. I know I’ve been guilty of it in the past.
I don’t mean to imply that the people behind the ads are to be seen as shitty people, or in this light alone, and I think in the course of describing this perspective which I viewed as needing to be conveyed I may have failed to make that clear. I do actually agree with your take on what they see themselves as doing, and that it’s not entirely illegitimate.
I responded to my own comment trying to lay out better what I meant exactly by “alignment failure” and how “they’re not (meta) trying to be hostile” and “they’re trying to humiliate and degrade” aren’t actually mutually exclusive.
For what it’s worth, I didn’t take you to be asserting that the people behind the ads are shitty people (either unconditionally or conditional on your conjecture about their motives being correct).
Thanks for the feedback. To be clear, I didn’t mean that I inferred that you took it that way, just that after I finished writing I realized I was doing the “pretty critical of people for doing very normal things” thing, and that it often comes off that way if I’m not careful to credibly disclaim that interpretation.
REMOVED
This is a helpful datapoint for me. I’ve never heard the phrase that is apparently being riffed on.
The mask ads are produced by the MTA as part of a campaign whose overt (and, I think, real) goal is to get people to wear masks.
Therefore, they are not in fact anti-mask propaganda.
Ben may of course argue, perhaps correctly, that the attitude revealed by the ads is authoritarian and unpleasant and that for some people this makes the ads have an anti-mask effect. But that doesn’t mean the ads are “trying to degrade and humiliate mask-wearers”; maybe they have that effect but for that to be their intention the relevant people at the MTA would have to be moustache-twirling villains plotting “so, we will break their spirits and then they will be easier to control, bwahahahaha”, which is just not plausible.
(Alternatively, it’s possible that the people at the MTA wanted pro-mask ads, and they engaged an advertising agency that’s full of mask-haters who decided to subvert the message they were asked to promote by making superficially pro-mask but more subtly anti-mask advertisements. I do not find this plausible either; I think advertising agencies are too attached to making money to risk pissing off a major customer by doing that.)
If Ben had been complaining that the ads will put a lot of people off and therefore are bad ads and been met with incomprehension—which, to be clear, I think he quite likely would have been—then he’d be right to suggest that something bad is going on in the heads of the people failing to understand him. But I think it’d be something much simpler and less exciting than “regarding the dramatic authoritarianism of making people do things they don’t want to as the principal benefit of masks”. (Namely, that most people are pretty stupid and have trouble understanding any position on a thing X more complicated than “yay X” and “boo X”, and are liable to round everything to one of those or the other.)
In any case, again, that isn’t what Ben said. He said: “Seems like they’re now trying to degrade and humiliate mask-wearers”. Which is obviously wrong, and that rounding-things-off heuristic is particularly likely to happen when faced with someone who seems to be saying something stupid. In this case, though, I don’t think even that is what happened. I think the one person on whose response he seems to be basing this paranoid theory about what ‘the “pro-mask position”’ is really about, was making a perfectly valid point. Ben says, or appears to be saying: look at these ads, they say you should wear a mask and be silent, obviously this is an attempt to degrade and humiliate mask-wearers. She says: no, the “be silent” bit has a simpler and less sinister explanation: there’s an actual public-health benefit. All she’s guilty of here is not picking up on the other things Ben sees as evidence of an attempt to degrade and humiliate.
Again: all this seems like a clear instance of the “explicit X & implicit Y yield Z, therefore those who say X believe Z”. Y is “my interpretation of the subtext of these ads is correct”. Even if Ben is right about the subtext—if e.g. the MTA really is full of moustache-twirling villains, or their ad agency of anti-MTA anti-mask-requirement subversives—I claim it is perfectly possible for a reasonable person to fail to appreciate this, and that this is a much more likely explanation for their not grasping Ben’s point than that they’re part of the Great Authoritarian-Sadomasochistic Collective Conspiracy that Ben is trying to portray.
I don’t think it’s necessary to believe that “the MTA really is full of moustache-twirling villains” in order to believe that sometimes they’re mean to people on purpose. This is a normal thing that normal people do and doesn’t require someone to be totally committed at all times to evil. The interesting problem is not that someone was mean, but that the factional imperative to be pro-mask and anti-anti-mask effectively functions to provides cover for this, so that as part of their display of factional loyalty people refuse to recognize that someone did something mean.
Sure, people can be deliberately mean without being moustache-twirling villains. But the particular kind of deliberate meanness that you seem to be hypothesizing here seems pretty moustache-twirly.
Normally when people are deliberately mean to others without being moustache-twirling villains it’s (1) because they particularly dislike those other people or (2) because there is some concrete benefit to them from being mean.
In the present case, you’re suggesting that the MTA put out advertisements that intentionally had subtexts like “hey you, mask-wearers, eat shit”. Is it plausible that the MTA (or their executives, or the people running their ad campaigns) particularly dislike their customers as a whole, or specifically their customers who wear masks in order to reduce the spread of disease on the trains? Not to me. Is there some other concrete benefit the MTA (or etc.) would get from making their customers (as a whole, or etc.) feel bad? Not that I can see.
What’s the actual psychological process you envisage here, and why do you find it plausible?
I guess people are mean because it moves them up in the pecking order, or prevents them from moving down, and they think it’s safer to be an aggressor than a victim. Since scolding people for maybe not wearing masks is a protected behavior, they can get away with more meanness, with less discernment, than in other contexts. I don’t fully understand why this gives people cover for being mean to mask-wearers in the name of pro-mask propaganda, but it seems to be the case. This seems like part of the same phenomenon: https://reductress.com/post/how-governor-cuomo-once-a-soft-sidepiece-snapped-into-a-dom-daddy-i-would-let-choke-me/
Even a similar focus on allowing the dominator to constrict your breathing!
My best guess is that being mean to people is considered part of the process by which you take care of them, since it’s part of the process of giving orders, as I sketched out in Civil Law and Political Drama, much like frame-controlling them is, as Vaniver pointed out here and here.
I don’t think at any point here you’ve managed to say the thing I think is happening, and you’ve repeatedly avoided it.
This paragraph is a miss at stating what I would say is going on at the MTA (and also what I think Ben would say):
It’s not hard for me to imagine Tilda Swinton’s character telling her underlings to create wall-ads for sustaining order, and that they pick things like “Keep Order. Know your place. Be a shoe!” In this world would you also be arguing “Well the overt goal is to keep order, why would you assume it’s to degrade and humiliate the people?” I think you’d probably agree that inside their heads they’re looking for slogans that are degrading.
Like, my straw model of you right now is saying “Well either people are good, or they’re bad, and for someone to do something intentionally mean or unkind, must mean they are BAD PEOPLE, and are also bad in that they have mustaches that they twirl. I observe no moustaches, therefore they did not have this bad intention.”
Whereas I’m saying “sometimes groups of advanced monkeys can (amongst them many fine things they do) support false narratives about the group (e.g. companies that think they’re doing great then suddenly fail) and they can also systematically protect the powerful whilst otherwise trying to get on with their lives, and they can also systematically be unfair and kind of unethical to an outgroup whilst otherwise doing lots of fine things in the world.”
People are mixes of emotions and impulses, and people in groups can be especially blind to their impulses. I don’t get why it’s psychologically unimaginable to you to think that the people making mask ads kind of want to degrade the people their coalition is forcing to wear masks, and that they picked a nominally pro-mask slogan because it does so, or that their lack of moustaches all but proves that they cannot have this intention.
If “you’ve repeatedly avoided it” is meant to mean “I think you know what is actually going on and are going out of your way not to say it”, then I deny that charge. I may well be wrong about what is going on, but I promise I am not being insincere about it.
My apologies for popular-culture-ignorance, but I don’t know what “Tilda Swinton’s character” is meant to convey. Am I supposed to imagine a moustache-twirling evil dictator, or a well-meaning dictator, or a faceless bureaucrat, or what? Unfortunately, not knowing what scenario you’re asking me to imagine I don’t think I can usefully comment on whether I would agree that “inside their heads they’re looking for slogans that are degrading”; if they’re saying things like “know your place, be a shoe” then it sure sounds as if they are, but that also sounds to me like some combination of moustache-twirling villainy and deliberate subversion; I don’t think real people who aren’t actively trying to make others’ lives worse say things like “know your place, be a shoe”. But, again, maybe there’s some specific movie I’m supposed to be thinking of here that would make this all clearer?
(I had a look at Swinton’s filmography. The most obviously-relevant thing here is that she played the White Witch in a Narnia movie. That’s pretty much a moustache-twirling role, modulo the absence of moustaches for obvious biological reasons.)
Your straw model of me is indeed made of straw. It’s not obvious to me why you would ascribe the particular stupidities to me that you ascribe to straw-me, so I’m not sure how to respond to them. People don’t divided neatly into Good and Bad, obviously, and my point is exactly that what’s being hypothesized here seems to me like the sort that fictional Bad characters do and real people with real motives generally don’t. Not because real people are Good and never do anything bad; because the particular sort of badness being proposed seems to me fiction-like. “Moustache-twirling” is meant to gesture at that, not to indicate that I think it matters whether they have moustaches. (Duh, obviously. But how else am I supposed to respond to the last couple of sentences in that paragraph?)
I agree, of course, that sometimes people (or groups of people) can be systematically unfair and unethical to an outgroup. But I don’t see what outgroup you have in mind (“all our passengers”? “all our passengers who wear masks”?) and I don’t see what specifically you think would lead to the specific kind of obnoxiousness-to-that-outgroup that’s being proposed here.
It’s not that I think it’s impossible that “the people making mask ads kind of want to degrade the people their coalition is forcing to wear masks”. Of course it’s possible. What I don’t see is why it’s plausible; why that particular hypothesis should be regarded as a good explanation for anything; why it’s better than, say, “the people making these mask ads happen to have a sexual fetish that makes them feel like comparing masks to assholes will be pleasantly exciting for their audience” (which I think is extremely unlikely, even though people not infrequently have fetishes, and seems to me roughly on a par with your proposal in terms of plausibility) or “the people making these mask ads are specifically intending a contrast with the old joke about assholes and intend that ‘everyonie should have one’ will be a pleasant surprise for their audience” (which I think is actually probably correct) or “the people making these mask ads just somehow never thought of the old joke about assholes at all” (which seems unlikely even though people often miss things that you’d think obvious, but no more unlikely than your proposal).
Like, no, what’s being hypothesized here is just that the people at the organization are a part of a broader semi-authoritarian attempt to control a population, and that insofar as that is happening, they’re playing their role, which is to kind of not notice whilst also doing a reasonably good job at their part. This is pretty normal.
The truth is I’m not that confident of this interpretation of this particular ad, I could definitely learn evidence that would change my mind, it’s not that hard to get counter-evidence for such stories. But I feel like you haven’t once entertained this hypothesis and argued against it, you’ve just said “I don’t see it”, this is “obviously wrong”, and “the particular kind of deliberate meanness that you seem to be hypothesizing here seems pretty moustache-twirly”. The story we’re talking about seems to be a super common one to me throughout societies, and I guess I feel like you haven’t made an argument against it happening here other than one based on your own disbelief.[1]
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You seem most hung up on the phrase “anti-mask propaganda”, like when you say “The mask ads are produced by the MTA as part of a campaign whose overt (and, I think, real) goal is to get people to wear masks… Therefore, they are not in fact anti-mask propaganda”.
Why are the ads anti-mask propaganda? Because both ads straightforwardly make me less likely to wear a mask in a public setting or when asked to by someone else. The ad “Masks speak louder than words” suggests to me “This is a signal about what team you are on” and I detest people forcing tribal signals on me. This ad makes me care more about signaling to others that I do not care very much about mask-wearing because otherwise I feel I am being co-opted to signal in a political game. As an ad, it decreases my willingness to wear a mask. And I further think that the cognitive processes that led to these slogans being picked were picking it for tribal reasons and were happy to pick slogans that marginally reduced people’s chance of wearing masks in order to stomp on people more in a plausibly-deniable way.
It seems fairly plausible (i.e. somewhere in 10%-70%) that not one person focused their entire consciousnesses on creating anti-mask propaganda like the moustache-twirling villains you mentioned, but it seems to me quite likely that whatever sub-process ran in their brain essentially searched for an ad that gets away as looking like pro-mask propaganda while in fact just stomping on people, in a way that is functionally anti-mask propaganda.
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One line replies:
No, I just felt like you kept talking around it, I didn’t mean you seemed obviously insincere.
Alas! In my first comment upthread I referenced her character in the movie Snowpiercer and linked to a video of her giving a key tone-setting speech in the film.
An argument could look like, for example: “Here is a nearby institution that has clear markers of being pretty resistant to this sort of authoritarian stuff, which is reason to expect the MTA is too, so your story here doesn’t match my picture of the world.”
So, first of all, my apologies for missing where you said what Tilda Swinton character you had in mind. I remark that said character almost-literally is a moustache-twirling villain: in the scene you link to, we watch her smiling smugly while a man is being tortured for stepping out of his Ordained Place and going on about how she naturally belongs on top and they naturally belong trodden underfoot. All of which is consonant with (although, of course, not proof of the rightness of) my sense that the sort of thing being described here is more characteristic of Movie Bad Guys than of anything common in the real world.
I think part of what is going on here is that to me it looks like you and other-Ben are doing what Eliezer dubbed “privileging the hypothesis”. To be clear, I am sure that it seems entirely otherwise to both of you, and what is actually going here is that we have different underlying models of the world that make different hypotheses seem particularly plausible: to me, your-and-Benquo’s model looks paranoid; to you, my model looks naïve.
It’s true that I haven’t given concrete evidence against the Ben-squared interpretation; but it’s also true that neither of you has given evidence for it, so far as I can see. It’s not really the sort of thing for which concrete evidence is easy to come by. You say “it’s not that hard to get counter-evidence for such stories”, but I don’t know on what basis you say so. You give an example in a footnote of what counter-evidence might look like, but I don’t really know what “clear markers of being pretty resistant to this sort of authoritarian stuff” would look like if present, and it seems like there’s an underlying assumption here that institutions should be assumed malevolently authoritarian unless they have “clear markers of being pretty resistant”, which is part of what I am disputing. I genuinely cannot think of anything I could do that would—even conditional on my being absolutely correct about what’s going on here—take less than say two hours of work and give more than say a 25% chance of providing concrete evidence that my interpretation is better than yours.
You quote me as saying “I don’t see it” and “obviously wrong” and “seems pretty moustache-twirly”. In contrast, you are much more focused on concrete evidence, saying that your interpretation of things “is pretty normal”[1], “seems to be super common”, that “I further think that” [reiteration of the theory], and “it seems to me quite likely that” [reiteration of the theory]”. Benquo, in the OP, mostly just states his interpretation as if it were an obvious matter of fact: “the obvious transitive implication”, “the thinly-veiled message is”, “its explicit content is”[2], “anti-mask propaganda”, etc.
[1] What you say is “pretty normal” is something weaker than what you and Benquo are claiming in the present case, something like “there is an ongoing semi-authoritarian attempt to control a population, and the people involved are kinda-unconsciously-deliberately not noticing this while doing their part to help it”.
[2] No, its explicit content isn’t, any more than saying “actions speak louder than words” and urging someone to act is a form of silencing.
It seems to me as if you and Benquo are making assertions about these people’s motives on the basis of no concrete evidence, and then complaining of my unreasonableness when I say that those assertions seem implausible to me on the basis of no concrete evidence. Shouldn’t we have a consistent standard here?
I think it’s a dirty rhetorical move to take “Ben said X and drew important conclusions from it, and you keep pointing out that the facts are not consistent with X” and express it as “you seem hung up on X”. Be that as it may, I think it is an abuse of language to call something “anti-mask propaganda” when it is intended as pro-mask propaganda merely because it has the effect of making some people less inclined to wear masks.
I remark that your paragraph beginning “It seems fairly plausible” is, stated a little differently, saying that you estimate a 30-90% chance that someone involved in the making of those ads did in fact “focus their entire consciousness on creating anti-mask propaganda like a moustache-twirling villain”. Really?
(One other remark: the contempt you hypothesize at the MTA for the people they’re aiming their ads at seems no greater than the contempt you and Benquo seem to feel for the people you’re criticizing. Maybe I should be taking this as evidence for a general “there’s a lot of contempt around” hypothesis, but in any case it feels like it’s worth drawing some attention to because something seems off to me about saying what amounts to “look how contemptible these people are, for treating other people as contemptible”.)