General note: If you’re interested in any of the propositions below (except the first one), please let me know, either here or at contact@matiroy.com .
Bootstrapping a commitment platform
Make at least 5 commitments if a commitment platform is created (or rather, the creator might want to commit to improving a bare-bone platform if at least 200 people commit to make a total of at least 1,000 commitments).
If 75 EAs / rationalists / life extensionists committed to move to Phoenix this year, I’d move to Phoenix this year.
Financing cryonics research
If 500 other people committed 10,000 USD to cryonics research, I would give 10,000 USD to cryonics research.
Doing a cryonics related PhD
I would do a PhD in some field relevant to cryonics if some people committed a fraction of my salary to do cryonics research over 10 years. That is, they would give say 20% (or 10k USD / year) of my salary to whatever cryonics lab that hires me.
Training a local cryonics team
I would arrange to have a local (to Montreal) standby cryonics team if at least 500,000 CAD was committed (exact amount TBD). (Although I guess I could just use Kickstarter for that, or do it entirely ad hoc?)
Organizing Rationalist Olympiads
If 12+ people committed to go to Rationalist Olympiads (in Montreal), I would organize Rationalist Olympiads.
Simplified spelling
I unilaterally switched to simplified spelling in French ( https://www.facebook.com/mati.roy.09/posts/10157948032459579 ), but I feel more uneasy about doing it in English for a combination of reasons (not my native language, switch seems more complex, I have more important conversations in English than French, competing proposed simplification).
I’m not sure what coordinated commitment I would want here exactly, but maybe something like 1% of my Facebook friends or 1% of LessWrong posters committing to switching to a simplified spelling convention in English. I might still end up unilaterally switching, but that’s much less likely.
Because it’s near the best cryonics facility in the world: https://alcor.org, and the quality of cryopreservations for people living in Phoenix is much higher on average than remote cases (it reduces the delay to start the procedure, it avoids problems at borders, the delay to start the sub-zero cool-down is shorter, they have good relationships with nearby hospitals, they have better infrastructure, and there’s more legal antecedent supporting cryonics).
Climate change is causing the American southwest (and Phoenix) to warm up even faster than other places—plus the Colorado River’s flow is drying up at its sources—is Phoenix even a sustainable choice 30-40 years down the line? Especially for cryopreservations? In Phoenix’s favor, it is surrounded by deserts which should make use of the area’s solar power, so maybe cost of electricity to cool the damn city down may not be as much of an issue as before, but I’d still worry about the constant electricity needed to cool the cryopreserved bodies throughout the year.
Keep in mind that the energy required for AC increases as the square of temperature difference between inside and outside, and very few people really know how to deal with temperatures that regularly go above 120F, which could very well happen to Phoenix in 60 years. It seems that scaling laws of “removing waste heat” are such that the feedback loops are all positive as temperature further increases (eg more AC, more venting of heated air outside, more people who stay inside b/c they can’t go outside, water becomes far scarcer and more expensive to import, etc)
It still seemed plenty hot. Over the past century, the hot season in Phoenix has extended almost three weeks in each direction, while overnight temperatures, which used to provide a respite from the daytime heat, have increased by as much as 12°. Researchers expect these trends to continue as Phoenix grows, because adding more heat-retaining pavement and structures—plus more heat-producing people and machines—contributes to the “urban heat island effect,” which makes the city hotter than the surrounding desert.
“I don’t think we can rule out 130° in Phoenix in the future,” says David Hondula, an Arizona State University professor who studies the health effects of extreme heat. A 2016 report by Climate Central predicts that by 2050, Phoenix will be among 25 U.S. cities in which heat poses a danger to human health for more than half the year.
The cryonics dewars are in buildings at the same temperature than any other businesses in Phoenix, or any other cryonics organizations in the world, pretty much. So liquid nitrogen doesn’t evaporate faster than other cryonics organizations, and electricity cost to cool down the building are just as high as any businesses in Phoenix. Not a big concern.
The chances of climate change making Phoenix uninhabitable >>> the changes of being cryonically revived. Keep in mind that the energy required for AC increases as the square of temperature difference between inside and outside, and very few people really know how to deal with temperatures that regularly go above 120F, which could very well happen to Phoenix in 60 years.
Updated: 2019-12-22
General note: If you’re interested in any of the propositions below (except the first one), please let me know, either here or at contact@matiroy.com .
Bootstrapping a commitment platform
Make at least 5 commitments if a commitment platform is created (or rather, the creator might want to commit to improving a bare-bone platform if at least 200 people commit to make a total of at least 1,000 commitments).
Improving the Cause Prioritization Wiki (CPW)
Migrate the CPW on the MediaWiki platform and improve the structure if enough people commit edits for a total of 2000+ edits.
Side note: I’ve added this thread here: https://causeprioritization.org/Coordination
Moving to Phoenix
If 75 EAs / rationalists / life extensionists committed to move to Phoenix this year, I’d move to Phoenix this year.
Financing cryonics research
If 500 other people committed 10,000 USD to cryonics research, I would give 10,000 USD to cryonics research.
Doing a cryonics related PhD
I would do a PhD in some field relevant to cryonics if some people committed a fraction of my salary to do cryonics research over 10 years. That is, they would give say 20% (or 10k USD / year) of my salary to whatever cryonics lab that hires me.
Training a local cryonics team
I would arrange to have a local (to Montreal) standby cryonics team if at least 500,000 CAD was committed (exact amount TBD). (Although I guess I could just use Kickstarter for that, or do it entirely ad hoc?)
Organizing Rationalist Olympiads
If 12+ people committed to go to Rationalist Olympiads (in Montreal), I would organize Rationalist Olympiads.
Simplified spelling
I unilaterally switched to simplified spelling in French ( https://www.facebook.com/mati.roy.09/posts/10157948032459579 ), but I feel more uneasy about doing it in English for a combination of reasons (not my native language, switch seems more complex, I have more important conversations in English than French, competing proposed simplification).
I’m not sure what coordinated commitment I would want here exactly, but maybe something like 1% of my Facebook friends or 1% of LessWrong posters committing to switching to a simplified spelling convention in English. I might still end up unilaterally switching, but that’s much less likely.
Ref.: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_reforms_of_the_English_language
Why Phoenix? (I live in Phoenix, BTW)
Because it’s near the best cryonics facility in the world: https://alcor.org, and the quality of cryopreservations for people living in Phoenix is much higher on average than remote cases (it reduces the delay to start the procedure, it avoids problems at borders, the delay to start the sub-zero cool-down is shorter, they have good relationships with nearby hospitals, they have better infrastructure, and there’s more legal antecedent supporting cryonics).
This summer I went to Phoenix for about a month to see how it was. I organized the first local effective altruism event: https://www.facebook.com/groups/EffectiveAltruismPhoenix/. I reached out to the LessWrong group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/317266081721112/ and the SlateStarCodex group: https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/slate-star-codex-phoenix . There are 4 people in the Brain Debugging Discussion Facebook group that specified living in Phoenix on their Facebook profile: https://www.facebook.com/groups/144017955332/local_members/ , 1 on the Effective Altruism Facebook group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/437177563005273/local_members/ , 0 on EA Hub: https://eahub.org/profiles , and 7 on the Global Transhumanist Association: https://www.facebook.com/groups/2229380549/local_members/ . IIRC, I had reached out to (some of) them as well (and probably more). I also had invited people from the cryonics community. IIRC, there was 2-3 rationalists and 3 cryonicists that showed up to the event. And maybe around 5 that were interested but couldn’t make it. IIRC, there had been a few SSC events in the last 2 years, with maybe a total of something like 12 people showing up. I’ve also met with about 20 cryonics old-timers.
Other approaches I see towards solving this problem:
do movement building once I’m Phoenix, or support other people that are interested in doing that
try to connect more with rationalists (or rationalists adjacent) that are already in Phoenix
instead of finding 75 interesting (to me) people, find only a dozen, but start a strong intentional community
here’s one project proposal for this idea: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1JdZ1lnXwoJatofsYa-oVKM0b55ev9EFr081Twd0YebI/ (this is just an idea; I’m much more flexible than that, and my interests are wider); I visited a lot of intentional communities, and have been running one for 3 years ( https://macroscope.house/ ), so I think I would have the expertise to start a new one
significantly improve the cryonics response quality in other cities (current contenders: Salem, Berkeley, Los Angeles)
If you (or anyone you know) are interested or can help with any of those, that would be great/appreciated!
How many rationalists / EAs / interesting people do you know in Phoenix? Do you like living in Phoenix?
I would like to connect with more LessWronger in Phoenix. If you want, you can add me on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/mati.roy.09 and/or send me an email at contact@matiroy.com and/or chat in public on https://www.reddit.com/r/Mati_Roy/ .
Climate change is causing the American southwest (and Phoenix) to warm up even faster than other places—plus the Colorado River’s flow is drying up at its sources—is Phoenix even a sustainable choice 30-40 years down the line? Especially for cryopreservations? In Phoenix’s favor, it is surrounded by deserts which should make use of the area’s solar power, so maybe cost of electricity to cool the damn city down may not be as much of an issue as before, but I’d still worry about the constant electricity needed to cool the cryopreserved bodies throughout the year.
Keep in mind that the energy required for AC increases as the square of temperature difference between inside and outside, and very few people really know how to deal with temperatures that regularly go above 120F, which could very well happen to Phoenix in 60 years. It seems that scaling laws of “removing waste heat” are such that the feedback loops are all positive as temperature further increases (eg more AC, more venting of heated air outside, more people who stay inside b/c they can’t go outside, water becomes far scarcer and more expensive to import, etc)
The cryonics dewars are in buildings at the same temperature than any other businesses in Phoenix, or any other cryonics organizations in the world, pretty much. So liquid nitrogen doesn’t evaporate faster than other cryonics organizations, and electricity cost to cool down the building are just as high as any businesses in Phoenix. Not a big concern.
But aren’t cooling costs to room temperatures higher in Phoenix than other places? (esp given the longer duration of heat?)
yes, but it’s a rather small consideration
The chances of climate change making Phoenix uninhabitable >>> the changes of being cryonically revived. Keep in mind that the energy required for AC increases as the square of temperature difference between inside and outside, and very few people really know how to deal with temperatures that regularly go above 120F, which could very well happen to Phoenix in 60 years.
How would a Rationalist Olympiads event look like?
See section “Games and Exercises” of “How to Run a Successful LessWrong Meetup Group” for some ideas: https://wiki.lesswrong.com/mediawiki/images/c/ca/How_to_Run_a_Successful_Less_Wrong_Meetup_Group.pdf