I feel like the absence of large effects is to be expected during a short-term experiment. It would be deeply shocking to me if there was a meaningful shift in stuff like employment or housing in any experiment that doesn’t run for a significant fraction of the duration of a job or lease/rental agreement. For a really significant study you’d want to target the average in an area, I expect.
I feel like the absence of large effects is to be expected during a short-term experiment. It would be deeply shocking to me if there was a meaningful shift in stuff like employment or housing in any experiment that doesn’t run for a significant fraction of the duration of a job or lease/rental agreement. For a really significant study you’d want to target the average in an area, I expect.
The difference you are interested in—short vs long—is explicitly studied by the GiveDirectly UBI study in Kenya.