> Switzerland is going even slower, making the usual noises about the need for ‘caution.’ My read is that this is because they did not order vaccine doses early enough, and now they are all sold out, so why not spin that by not approving the vaccine for a while and calling it ‘caution?’
This “read” of yours is quite far reaching, going on very little information. It is also completely wrong: Switzerland has contracts with all 3 major vaccine providers, the first of which was signed way back in August, securing 4.5 million doses (covering ~25% of the population).
So, yes, these delays are indeed because the swiss health authorities are being cautious. The vaccines are going through expedited but otherwise normal approval processes.
None of that considers timing. I don’t know when what vaccine they have managed to buy will arrive. But August was rather late in the game to be doing one’s first contract.
Even with all deals combined, Switzerland doesn’t have 2 doses per person. They have half the European Union average before deal expansion, one third after potential EU deal expansion.
UK, US, Canada have the most, with 5+ doses per person, and all three are moving quickly to approve.
So, the Swiss just approved the Pfizer vaccine. I think this clearly proves you wrong. However, as I was already planning to write an answer before this new development, let me give you that answer for completeness’ sake (better late than never).
Your original claim sounded a lot stronger than what you’re now saying, where it seems you simply disagree with the exact quantity that is being ordered.
Do you consider it obvious that 5+ doses per person would be optimal? For starters, only about half the population even wants to get vaccinated. Also, the first million doses are clearly worth much more than each additional million. These decisions were made in a very high uncertainty environment, before the effectiveness numbers were known. Switzerland obviously doesn’t have the same market power as other, larger countries, etc. I’m not saying I disagree with your position, just that it is far from obviously correct.
But your original comment went much further than just claiming the swiss ordered the wrong quantity. You implied that Swissmedic (the body in charge of approval) basically has no political independence, and that both the head of Swissmedic and the health minister were brazenly lying to the public when they claimed that they were moving as fast as possible towards approval.
My priors say that these things are pretty unlikely. The delay is much more easily explained by the fact that there is no emergency approval process in Switzerland, which yields a huge status-quo bias for the regular process. To move any faster, new laws would have had to be passed.
So yes, I do think that you made a very far reaching read based on very little information.
> Switzerland is going even slower, making the usual noises about the need for ‘caution.’ My read is that this is because they did not order vaccine doses early enough, and now they are all sold out, so why not spin that by not approving the vaccine for a while and calling it ‘caution?’
This “read” of yours is quite far reaching, going on very little information. It is also completely wrong: Switzerland has contracts with all 3 major vaccine providers, the first of which was signed way back in August, securing 4.5 million doses (covering ~25% of the population).
Source (in german): <https://www.srf.ch/news/schweiz/moderna-impfdosen-gesichert-schweiz-steigt-ins-rennen-um-einen-moeglichen-impfstoff-ein>
So, yes, these delays are indeed because the swiss health authorities are being cautious. The vaccines are going through expedited but otherwise normal approval processes.
That sources says they don’t have enough vaccine! Also consider this one: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03370-6.
None of that considers timing. I don’t know when what vaccine they have managed to buy will arrive. But August was rather late in the game to be doing one’s first contract.
Even with all deals combined, Switzerland doesn’t have 2 doses per person. They have half the European Union average before deal expansion, one third after potential EU deal expansion.
UK, US, Canada have the most, with 5+ doses per person, and all three are moving quickly to approve.
None of this seems like a coincidence to me.
So, the Swiss just approved the Pfizer vaccine. I think this clearly proves you wrong. However, as I was already planning to write an answer before this new development, let me give you that answer for completeness’ sake (better late than never).
Your original claim sounded a lot stronger than what you’re now saying, where it seems you simply disagree with the exact quantity that is being ordered.
Do you consider it obvious that 5+ doses per person would be optimal? For starters, only about half the population even wants to get vaccinated. Also, the first million doses are clearly worth much more than each additional million. These decisions were made in a very high uncertainty environment, before the effectiveness numbers were known. Switzerland obviously doesn’t have the same market power as other, larger countries, etc. I’m not saying I disagree with your position, just that it is far from obviously correct.
But your original comment went much further than just claiming the swiss ordered the wrong quantity. You implied that Swissmedic (the body in charge of approval) basically has no political independence, and that both the head of Swissmedic and the health minister were brazenly lying to the public when they claimed that they were moving as fast as possible towards approval.
My priors say that these things are pretty unlikely. The delay is much more easily explained by the fact that there is no emergency approval process in Switzerland, which yields a huge status-quo bias for the regular process. To move any faster, new laws would have had to be passed.
So yes, I do think that you made a very far reaching read based on very little information.