I think the sleeping beauty problem is subtle and am still somewhat confused regarding it. So it is worth reading Terry Tao’s post just for that if you’re in a similair situation.
I don’t think deal making is crazy if you’re dealing with a person with a sane decision theory. But Putin clearly isn’t such a person, and most would be conquerors weren’t either. Not sure what the optimal move is there. Develop a repuation for hitting back hard, but also being honest? Too bad we don’t have that.
I think the sleeping beauty problem is subtle and am still somewhat confused regarding it. So it is worth reading Terry Tao’s post just for that if you’re in a similair situation.
I don’t think deal making is crazy if you’re dealing with a person with a sane decision theory. But Putin clearly isn’t such a person, and most would be conquerors weren’t either. Not sure what the optimal move is there. Develop a repuation for hitting back hard, but also being honest? Too bad we don’t have that.