...it is almost as certainly true, on Bayesian grounds, that belief in resurrection as a function of the power of a super-natural God is not a rejection of science.
I believe that it is. Either an incredibly powerful agent such as the one described in the Bible exists and acts upon the world, or he doesn’t. If he exists, and if he pops in from time to time to perform miracles, then we should see some evidence of him doing that. If we did, then science as we know it would not work, because we’d have no predictable natural laws against which to run our tests. Science does appear to work, however, which means that either gods do not exist, or they do exist but aren’t actually doing anything, which is no better than not existing at all.
Right. As the miracle events become more and more rare, our probability estimate of their existence becomes lower and lower—in the absence of some direct evidence, that is. This is why we believe in meteorite impacts, but not in resurrections.
Either an incredibly powerful agent such as the one described in the Bible exists and acts upon the world, or he doesn’t. If he exists, and if he pops in from time to time to perform miracles,
Not “time to time”—I was addressing the specific claim of one resurrection event in history. We might not expect to have any evidence of such an event preserved at all, and certainly none better than the type of documentary evidence adduced to it.
then we should see some evidence of him doing that.
Agreed—however, there is a correllation between the frequency and mode of such interventions and the amount and quality of evidence we should expect. It doesn’t make sense to think this is happening at all, but it isn’t anti-scientific to believe that it has and maybe does happen in subtle ways and/or at rare times.
Not “time to time”—I was addressing the specific claim of one resurrection event in history.
Sure, it’s possible that the Resurrection did occur; believing in its mere possibility is not, in itself, unscientific. But I would argue that if science works, then you’d be forced to conclude that the Resurrection most likely did not occur, based on the evidence available to you. Similarly, you would be forced to conclude that intelligent aliens most likely never visited the Earth—not even that one time—while still acknowledging that it’s entirely possible that they did.
It doesn’t make sense to think this is happening at all, but it isn’t anti-scientific to believe that it has and maybe does happen in subtle ways and/or at rare times.
Once again, it’s a matter of probabilities. If these effects are so subtle and/or rare as to be undetectable, then we’d conclude that such effects most probably do not occur. This is different from saying that they definitely do not occur, or that they cannot occur in principle, etc.
I think it’s worth relating the argument about the Resurrection and the argument about rabbits chewing their cud. We now have a reasonably good definition of “dead”. We know that classical civilisation in 33AD didn’t.
Assuming that there was a person called Jesus and that he was crucified, we have no means of knowing whether he was, in fact, dead or not. It’s necessarily impossible to apply the modern definition since the ECG hadn’t been invented then.
There are scientific phenomena that would result in the observations that are reported in the gospels as the Resurrection (most obviously, a coma caused by brain anoxia, and a recovery over a few days).
This is, interestingly, the Qu’ran’s position on the Resurrection. I’m not especially tied to it, but it does allow one to hold that the gospel writers were not deliberately lying (which raises the value of the gospels as evidence in general) without having to hold that the Resurrection was, in fact, a miracle.
I can see that a UU, someone who thinks that there is ethical value in (say) the Sermon on the Mount, being inclined to this position in that it strengthens the Bayesian evidence for the gospels which are our only available reports of the Sermon on the Mount.
That sort of argument implies some unpleasant things about the agent in question’s willingness to render assistance to those who claim to serve it, and further claim to receive various favors in return for such service.
I believe that it is. Either an incredibly powerful agent such as the one described in the Bible exists and acts upon the world, or he doesn’t. If he exists, and if he pops in from time to time to perform miracles, then we should see some evidence of him doing that. If we did, then science as we know it would not work, because we’d have no predictable natural laws against which to run our tests. Science does appear to work, however, which means that either gods do not exist, or they do exist but aren’t actually doing anything, which is no better than not existing at all.
Well, unless from time to time means “once every couple of millennia”… (Though Occam’s razor says you should assign a very small prior to that.)
Right. As the miracle events become more and more rare, our probability estimate of their existence becomes lower and lower—in the absence of some direct evidence, that is. This is why we believe in meteorite impacts, but not in resurrections.
Not “time to time”—I was addressing the specific claim of one resurrection event in history. We might not expect to have any evidence of such an event preserved at all, and certainly none better than the type of documentary evidence adduced to it.
Agreed—however, there is a correllation between the frequency and mode of such interventions and the amount and quality of evidence we should expect. It doesn’t make sense to think this is happening at all, but it isn’t anti-scientific to believe that it has and maybe does happen in subtle ways and/or at rare times.
Sure, it’s possible that the Resurrection did occur; believing in its mere possibility is not, in itself, unscientific. But I would argue that if science works, then you’d be forced to conclude that the Resurrection most likely did not occur, based on the evidence available to you. Similarly, you would be forced to conclude that intelligent aliens most likely never visited the Earth—not even that one time—while still acknowledging that it’s entirely possible that they did.
Once again, it’s a matter of probabilities. If these effects are so subtle and/or rare as to be undetectable, then we’d conclude that such effects most probably do not occur. This is different from saying that they definitely do not occur, or that they cannot occur in principle, etc.
I think it’s worth relating the argument about the Resurrection and the argument about rabbits chewing their cud. We now have a reasonably good definition of “dead”. We know that classical civilisation in 33AD didn’t.
Assuming that there was a person called Jesus and that he was crucified, we have no means of knowing whether he was, in fact, dead or not. It’s necessarily impossible to apply the modern definition since the ECG hadn’t been invented then.
There are scientific phenomena that would result in the observations that are reported in the gospels as the Resurrection (most obviously, a coma caused by brain anoxia, and a recovery over a few days).
This is, interestingly, the Qu’ran’s position on the Resurrection. I’m not especially tied to it, but it does allow one to hold that the gospel writers were not deliberately lying (which raises the value of the gospels as evidence in general) without having to hold that the Resurrection was, in fact, a miracle.
I can see that a UU, someone who thinks that there is ethical value in (say) the Sermon on the Mount, being inclined to this position in that it strengthens the Bayesian evidence for the gospels which are our only available reports of the Sermon on the Mount.
That sort of argument implies some unpleasant things about the agent in question’s willingness to render assistance to those who claim to serve it, and further claim to receive various favors in return for such service.
Indeed it may.