Heads: Two people with red jackets, one with blue.
Tails: Two people with red jackets, nine hundred and ninety nine thousand, nine hundred and
ninety-seven people with blue jackets.
Lights off.
Guess your jacket color. Guess what the coin came up. Write down your credences.
Light on.
Your jacket is red. What did the coin come up?
[ Also, re
Given that the implicit sampling method is random and independent (due to the fair coin), the credence in heads is a million to 1, thus you very likely are in the head’s world.
You are confused.
How about this:
Lights off.
Guess your jacket color. Guess what the coin came up. Write down your credences.
Light on.
Your jacket is red. What did the coin come up?
[ Also, re
Did you mean ‘tails’? ]