I am not sure how you think this is different from what I said in the post, i.e. that I think most Kolmogorov-simple universes that contain 1 civilization, contain exactly 1 civilization.
The difference is I’m only making a claim about 1 universe, and most importantly, I’m stating that we don’t know enough about what actually happened about life to exclude the possibility that one or more of the Drake equation’s factors is too high, not stating a positive claim that there exists exactly 1 civilization.
More here:
“Hey, for all we know, maybe one or more of the factors in the Drake equation is many orders of magnitude smaller than our best guess; and if it is, then there’s no more Fermi paradox”.
(Also, in an infinite universe, so long as there’s a non-zero probability of civilization arising, especially if it is isotropic like our universe is, then there are technically speaking an infinite number of civilizations.)
All sampling is nonrandom if you bother to overcome your own ignorance about the sampling mechanism.
There are definitely philosophical/mathematical questions on whether any sampling can ever be random even if you could in principle remove all the ignorance that is possible, but the thing that I concretely disagree with is that only logical dependencies are relevant for the doomsday argument, as I’d argue you’d have to take into account all the dependencies avaliable in order to get accurate estimate.
It sounds to me like you’re rejecting anthropic reasoning in full generality. That’s an interesting position, but it’s not a targeted rebuttal to my take here.
The difference is I’m only making a claim about 1 universe, and most importantly, I’m stating that we don’t know enough about what actually happened about life to exclude the possibility that one or more of the Drake equation’s factors is too high, not stating a positive claim that there exists exactly 1 civilization.
More here:
(Also, in an infinite universe, so long as there’s a non-zero probability of civilization arising, especially if it is isotropic like our universe is, then there are technically speaking an infinite number of civilizations.)
There are definitely philosophical/mathematical questions on whether any sampling can ever be random even if you could in principle remove all the ignorance that is possible, but the thing that I concretely disagree with is that only logical dependencies are relevant for the doomsday argument, as I’d argue you’d have to take into account all the dependencies avaliable in order to get accurate estimate.
It sounds to me like you’re rejecting anthropic reasoning in full generality. That’s an interesting position, but it’s not a targeted rebuttal to my take here.