Nuclear power has gotten to a point where we can use it quite safely as long as no one does the thing (the thing being chemically separating the plutonium and imploding it in your neighbor’s cities) and we seem to be surviving, as while all the actors have put great effort into being ready do do “the thing,” no one actually does it. I’m beginning to suspect that it will be worth separating alignment into two fields, one of “Actually make AI safe” and another, sadder but easier field of “Make AI safe as long as no one does the thing.” I’ve made some infinitesimal progress on the latter, but am not sure how to advance, use or share it since currently, conditional on me being on the right track, any research that I tell basically anyone about will immediately be used to get ready to do the thing, and conditional on me being on the wrong track (the more likely case by far) it doesn’t matter either way, so it’s all downside. I suspect this is common? This is almost but not quite the same concept as “Don’t advance capabilities.”
The most important thing to realize about AI alignment is that basically all versions of practically aligned AI must make certain assumptions that no one does a specific action (mostly related to misuse reasons, but for some specific plans, can also be related to misalignment reasons).
Another way to say it is that I believe that in practice, these two categories are the same category, such that basically all work that’s useful in the field will require someone not to do something, so the costs of sharing are practically 0, and the expected value of sharing insights is likely very large.
Specifically, I’m asserting that these 2 categories are actually one category for most purposes:
Actually make AI safe and another, sadder but easier field of “Make AI safe as long as no one does the thing.”
Properties of the track I am on are load bearing in this assertion. (Explicitl examples of both cases from the original comment: Tesla worked out how to destroy any structure by resonating it, and took the details to his grave because he was pretty sure that the details would be more useful for destroying buildings than for protecting them from resonating weapons. This didn’t actually matter because his resonating weapon concept was crankish and wrong. Einstein worked out how to destroy any city by splitting atoms, and disclosed this, and it was promptly used to destroy cities. This did matter because he was right, but maybe didn’t matter because lots of people worked out the splitting atoms thing at the same time. It’s hard to tell from the inside whether you are crankish)
The track you’re on is pretty illegible to me. Not saying your assertion is true/false. But I am saying I don’t understand what you’re talking about, and don’t think you’ve provided much evidence to change my views. And I’m a bit confused as to the purpose of your post.
Nuclear power has gotten to a point where we can use it quite safely as long as no one does the thing (the thing being chemically separating the plutonium and imploding it in your neighbor’s cities) and we seem to be surviving, as while all the actors have put great effort into being ready do do “the thing,” no one actually does it. I’m beginning to suspect that it will be worth separating alignment into two fields, one of “Actually make AI safe” and another, sadder but easier field of “Make AI safe as long as no one does the thing.” I’ve made some infinitesimal progress on the latter, but am not sure how to advance, use or share it since currently, conditional on me being on the right track, any research that I tell basically anyone about will immediately be used to get ready to do the thing, and conditional on me being on the wrong track (the more likely case by far) it doesn’t matter either way, so it’s all downside. I suspect this is common? This is almost but not quite the same concept as “Don’t advance capabilities.”
The most important thing to realize about AI alignment is that basically all versions of practically aligned AI must make certain assumptions that no one does a specific action (mostly related to misuse reasons, but for some specific plans, can also be related to misalignment reasons).
Another way to say it is that I believe that in practice, these two categories are the same category, such that basically all work that’s useful in the field will require someone not to do something, so the costs of sharing are practically 0, and the expected value of sharing insights is likely very large.
Specifically, I’m asserting that these 2 categories are actually one category for most purposes:
Yeah, I think this is pretty spot on, unfortunately. For more discussion on this point, see: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kLpFvEBisPagBLTtM/if-we-solve-alignment-do-we-die-anyway-1
Why? I don’t understand.
Properties of the track I am on are load bearing in this assertion. (Explicitl examples of both cases from the original comment: Tesla worked out how to destroy any structure by resonating it, and took the details to his grave because he was pretty sure that the details would be more useful for destroying buildings than for protecting them from resonating weapons. This didn’t actually matter because his resonating weapon concept was crankish and wrong. Einstein worked out how to destroy any city by splitting atoms, and disclosed this, and it was promptly used to destroy cities. This did matter because he was right, but maybe didn’t matter because lots of people worked out the splitting atoms thing at the same time. It’s hard to tell from the inside whether you are crankish)
The track you’re on is pretty illegible to me. Not saying your assertion is true/false. But I am saying I don’t understand what you’re talking about, and don’t think you’ve provided much evidence to change my views. And I’m a bit confused as to the purpose of your post.