This is a personal prediction, based on personal judgments about specific people engaged in a specific instantiation of this project. I would be happy to go on for multiple tens of thousands of words about this in private, but I suspect that doing so in public will do nothing but trigger tribalism and status games and defensiveness and all sorts of point-scoring that have nothing to do with anybody’s actual reasons for their beliefs.
Long story short, if you buy that I might actually have important pieces of the map, find me offline.
I will say this much: the bulk of my prediction lies in a model of people in this community responding naively to problems modeled well by the pendulum paradigm.
This is a personal prediction, based on personal judgments about specific people engaged in a specific instantiation of this project. I would be happy to go on for multiple tens of thousands of words about this in private, but I suspect that doing so in public will do nothing but trigger tribalism and status games and defensiveness and all sorts of point-scoring that have nothing to do with anybody’s actual reasons for their beliefs.
Long story short, if you buy that I might actually have important pieces of the map, find me offline.
I will say this much: the bulk of my prediction lies in a model of people in this community responding naively to problems modeled well by the pendulum paradigm.