Yes, in the UK this is called the “Shy Tory” effect. I don’t think all the media here is biased against the Conservative Party (some are pro, some are con) but you are quite right that the BBC (which is easily the largest and most powerful media organisation) is hostile. It’s possible this is (part of) the cause of this effect, and it’s notable that the three general elections where the polls messed up all did so by underestimating the Conservatives and overestimating Labour.
But I don’t know that this is a case of the polls getting it wrong. If this was a case of the “Shy Tory” effect, why did the exit poll (and the unpublished Survation poll) get it right? By comparison, in 1992 the exit poll was wrong.
Whilst the BBC may lean towards the left and be a powerful organisation, I doubt that the effect it had was anywhere near as great as the combined forces of the Daily Mail, The Sun, the Daily Telegraph, and The Times. These newspapers, which account for a huge percentage of the UK’s circulation, conducted what I can justifiably describe as a co-ordinated campaign of vitriolic rhetoric against the Labour party and Ed Miliband’s character. It’s telling that 2 of the 4 are owned by Rupert Murdoch, who has a lot to gain from a continued Conservative government.
There is simply no way the BBC would be able to pull the same kind of trick, as their reputation rests on them at least appearing politically neutral. It can’t have been that hard to come up with some derisive slogan regarding the welfare cuts Cameron is inevitably going to try and make, but the country (both left and right) would be up in arms if it was seen to be the opinion of the BBC. The only left-leaning newspaper with a comparable circulation is the Daily Mirror, which ran the headline “Keep Cameron Out”. I haven’t seen this article myself, but I doubt it has the same attacks on character as the right-wing papers.
First, you’re not really adding anything to the overall debate (why the polls were wrong).
Second, your post is mostly about politics, and how those of the party you disagree with is evil (or at least engages in ethically questionable behavior).
Third, your bias is evident (Why do you doubt the left-leaning newspaper wouldn’t engage in character attacks—as written, it comes off as little more than “My side is better than their side, and wouldn’t resort to such tactics”).
Don’t stress the voting too much, though. It doesn’t mean “You’ve done something wrong” (in general), it means “I don’t want to see this kind of thing”. Look at what you’ve posted—if you care what other people want to see—and don’t write that kind of thing anymore. That, of course, depends on being able to tell what it is you’ve actually done.
There may be another side of it: the tories do worse in cities better in the country.
BBC offices tend to be in cities so their staff are going to be surrounded by more lab/lib people meanwhile apart from debates where the audience is selected to match national statistics BBC studio audiences tend to be people who live in cities and are willing to stand in line for a long time for free tickets so are more likely to be young and poorer which makes them more likely to be lab/lib.
Yes, in the UK this is called the “Shy Tory” effect. I don’t think all the media here is biased against the Conservative Party (some are pro, some are con) but you are quite right that the BBC (which is easily the largest and most powerful media organisation) is hostile. It’s possible this is (part of) the cause of this effect, and it’s notable that the three general elections where the polls messed up all did so by underestimating the Conservatives and overestimating Labour.
But I don’t know that this is a case of the polls getting it wrong. If this was a case of the “Shy Tory” effect, why did the exit poll (and the unpublished Survation poll) get it right? By comparison, in 1992 the exit poll was wrong.
Whilst the BBC may lean towards the left and be a powerful organisation, I doubt that the effect it had was anywhere near as great as the combined forces of the Daily Mail, The Sun, the Daily Telegraph, and The Times. These newspapers, which account for a huge percentage of the UK’s circulation, conducted what I can justifiably describe as a co-ordinated campaign of vitriolic rhetoric against the Labour party and Ed Miliband’s character. It’s telling that 2 of the 4 are owned by Rupert Murdoch, who has a lot to gain from a continued Conservative government.
There is simply no way the BBC would be able to pull the same kind of trick, as their reputation rests on them at least appearing politically neutral. It can’t have been that hard to come up with some derisive slogan regarding the welfare cuts Cameron is inevitably going to try and make, but the country (both left and right) would be up in arms if it was seen to be the opinion of the BBC. The only left-leaning newspaper with a comparable circulation is the Daily Mirror, which ran the headline “Keep Cameron Out”. I haven’t seen this article myself, but I doubt it has the same attacks on character as the right-wing papers.
I’d be grateful if someone could give/suggest a reason for the downvotes.
I’d guess it’s a combination of several things:
First, you’re not really adding anything to the overall debate (why the polls were wrong). Second, your post is mostly about politics, and how those of the party you disagree with is evil (or at least engages in ethically questionable behavior). Third, your bias is evident (Why do you doubt the left-leaning newspaper wouldn’t engage in character attacks—as written, it comes off as little more than “My side is better than their side, and wouldn’t resort to such tactics”).
Don’t stress the voting too much, though. It doesn’t mean “You’ve done something wrong” (in general), it means “I don’t want to see this kind of thing”. Look at what you’ve posted—if you care what other people want to see—and don’t write that kind of thing anymore. That, of course, depends on being able to tell what it is you’ve actually done.
Anyone got the same effect in other countries?
There may be another side of it: the tories do worse in cities better in the country.
BBC offices tend to be in cities so their staff are going to be surrounded by more lab/lib people meanwhile apart from debates where the audience is selected to match national statistics BBC studio audiences tend to be people who live in cities and are willing to stand in line for a long time for free tickets so are more likely to be young and poorer which makes them more likely to be lab/lib.