Yes, I know that’s what you meant, but the point of my comment is that unlike with parapsychology, the object of study for climatologists definitely exists, whether or not AGW is real. Any individual climatologist who started to think that AGW might not be real won’t think “this is the end for climatology”, because climate exists either way.
And of course if they worry that funding for climate research might drop as a result of what they’ve found, they can console themselves with the knowledge that their new belief allows them to earn twice as much money working for an oil-industry funded body such as the CEI.
I understand your point, but the analogy still has a good deal of validity since the essential point is that the practical consequences of a negative result are to damage the careers of the scientists in question.
“And of course if they worry that funding for climate research might drop as a result of what they’ve found, they can console themselves with the knowledge that their new belief allows them to earn twice as much money working for an oil-industry funded body such as the CEI.”
I disagree. If it turns out that global warming was wildly exaggerated, why would the oil-industry fund any climatology work at all?
A researcher who thought it exaggerated would know that they would not personally be in a position to change the long-term trends whether or not they report their conclusions, but they could make a lot of money from the CEI in the short term. Denialists whose credentialed academic specialty is specifically climatology are few (I know of none), so they would be very much in demand.
Ok I understand your point. It seems to me that you are distinguishing between long term and short term consequences. Without getting into an argument about the availability of funding for skeptical global warming research, I will concede the possibility that a climate researcher who is publishing skeptical results may do better in the short term than a parapsychologist who is publishing skeptical results.
More than that: a fully credentialed climate researcher who is prepared to back the position of an organisation like the CEI can line their own pockets far more effectively than one who backs the scientific consensus. You’d be celebrated in many quarters as the world’s leading authority on the subject, you’d get speaking engagements aplenty, lots of media attention, and more. It’s an extraordinary testament to personal integrity that so few go for it—as I say, I know of none who have.
Assuming the world discovers and accepts that global warming was wildly exaggerated, how would oil-industry-funded climatology research reduce insurance premiums?
I’m told by somebody in the industry, that premiums in cyclone-areas (notably the rigs in the gulf of mexico) are going through the roof right now as climate change predictions mean that cyclone activity is likely to continually increase. If climate change were wildly exaggerated, it could be used to argue for reduced insurance premiums in those regions.
Um, I was responding to “why would the old industry fund climatology work at all”—my answer is “they might do it if it would reduce their insurance premiums”.
I do not postulate that they would continue to fund further research after that.
Looking back at your comment above, that is a word-for-word copy of what you asked. How have I misunderstood your question? Have I taken it out of context? If so—my apologies—and can you supply the correct context?
They might discover that global warming is not a serious threat after all.
Yes, I know that’s what you meant, but the point of my comment is that unlike with parapsychology, the object of study for climatologists definitely exists, whether or not AGW is real. Any individual climatologist who started to think that AGW might not be real won’t think “this is the end for climatology”, because climate exists either way.
And of course if they worry that funding for climate research might drop as a result of what they’ve found, they can console themselves with the knowledge that their new belief allows them to earn twice as much money working for an oil-industry funded body such as the CEI.
I understand your point, but the analogy still has a good deal of validity since the essential point is that the practical consequences of a negative result are to damage the careers of the scientists in question.
“And of course if they worry that funding for climate research might drop as a result of what they’ve found, they can console themselves with the knowledge that their new belief allows them to earn twice as much money working for an oil-industry funded body such as the CEI.”
I disagree. If it turns out that global warming was wildly exaggerated, why would the oil-industry fund any climatology work at all?
A researcher who thought it exaggerated would know that they would not personally be in a position to change the long-term trends whether or not they report their conclusions, but they could make a lot of money from the CEI in the short term. Denialists whose credentialed academic specialty is specifically climatology are few (I know of none), so they would be very much in demand.
Ok I understand your point. It seems to me that you are distinguishing between long term and short term consequences. Without getting into an argument about the availability of funding for skeptical global warming research, I will concede the possibility that a climate researcher who is publishing skeptical results may do better in the short term than a parapsychologist who is publishing skeptical results.
More than that: a fully credentialed climate researcher who is prepared to back the position of an organisation like the CEI can line their own pockets far more effectively than one who backs the scientific consensus. You’d be celebrated in many quarters as the world’s leading authority on the subject, you’d get speaking engagements aplenty, lots of media attention, and more. It’s an extraordinary testament to personal integrity that so few go for it—as I say, I know of none who have.
I’m not sure I’d go that far. I don’t know who CEI is, but Bob Carter, John Christy ,and Richard Lindzen don’t seem to be drowning in oil money.
CEI.
To reduce their currently extortionate insurance premiums.
Assuming the world discovers and accepts that global warming was wildly exaggerated, how would oil-industry-funded climatology research reduce insurance premiums?
I’m told by somebody in the industry, that premiums in cyclone-areas (notably the rigs in the gulf of mexico) are going through the roof right now as climate change predictions mean that cyclone activity is likely to continually increase. If climate change were wildly exaggerated, it could be used to argue for reduced insurance premiums in those regions.
Assuming for the sake of argument that that that’s true, so what? After that happens, what’s the incentive to fund further research?
Um, I was responding to “why would the old industry fund climatology work at all”—my answer is “they might do it if it would reduce their insurance premiums”.
I do not postulate that they would continue to fund further research after that.
“Um, I was responding to ‘why would the old industry fund climatology work at all’”
Ok, that’s not the question I asked.
Looking back at your comment above, that is a word-for-word copy of what you asked. How have I misunderstood your question? Have I taken it out of context? If so—my apologies—and can you supply the correct context?
Lol, yes you took it out of context. Here is the first part of my question:
“If it turns out that global warming was wildly exaggerated”
So the question is about what happens after anthropogenic CO2 triggered global warming is (hypothetically) debunked as a serious threat.
Doh! yep I didn’t realise you meant “after it’d already been debunked”. I think we’re in “violent agreement” :)