Why is this at all unlikely? This is a 52 year span of time
309 times 46 is 14 214, which divided by 52 equals approximately 273 unpublished studies per year. I haven’t seen any figures on how many studies were conducted for e.g. a specific experimental paradigm in psychology during that time, so I can’t say for certain how plausible this is or isn’t. It does sound a bit high considering that parapsychology hasn’t exactly been the best-funded field around, though it might have had more money in the 1930′s. Does anyone have numbers?
I’m not saying there were 14k unpublished completed full studies, I’m suggesting that what got published was already biased. There is room for selection bias at every level of a study, including which trials and which methods are finally taken, written up, and submitted. If the ‘scientists’ are trying to prove that psi exists, they can find it, one or another. Fraud isn’t even required, just wishful thinking. The consistency of the effect is interesting, but may only be measuring the psychological phenomenon of deliberate self-deception.-- ah we’ve discovered the threshold deviation from chance at which people will believe their own crap hasn’t been tampered by their own meddling.
Think about the alternative explanation: If the forced choice test is run properly- the subject guesses which order 5 symbols in a 25 card deck will appear before the deck has been shuffled. The deck is then shuffled by machine (or associate) in a different room, and the order of the cards are examined. Now, how do you propose the subject is entangled with the card shuffling machine and deck, without violating current physical law, such that he can predict the order? This is magical thinking, with no basis in reality as we know it. Unless there is a pattern in the card shuffling machine and some people are very aware of it due to practice with it… but that is hardly psi.
I’m not saying that psi must be real, only that it seems to merit a closer look than most people in this thread have been implying. Yes, it does seem rather unlikely that psi would exist, which is why I’m still undecided myself. But the fact that we can’t come up with any physical explanation for it doesn’t mean that it couldn’t be real. As Yvain pointed out, Newton’s theories may at the time have seemed like magical thinking as well. There could be some physical mechanism we’re just not aware of, but which the brain has nonetheless evolved to take advantage of.
Or then it might just be a sign of our statistical methods being flawed, made worse by psi researchers being insufficiently rigorous in their methods.
“I’m not saying that psi must be real, only that it seems to merit a closer look than most people in this thread have been implying.”
I strongly disagree. Psi has been looked at very intensively for a very long time, and the best it can yield is that it’s not completely statistically insignificant. No theories have been posed as to how it works, it hasn’t been quantified (ie, how far away, in what time frame can the subject predict the future), and it cannot be demonstrated reliably and repeatedly from even a few individuals who could then be studied more elaborately. Even one person who could always predict the order of a deck of cards would be fascinating. At some point, you just have to say a line of research does not merit further study.
In the mean time, giving these theories credence wastes time and resources and leads people to think they can believe anything they want about the world, including the outstanding religious dogma, since, hey, you never know.
Here’s a closer look: to accept psi, you would have to reject evolutionary biology.
It would be such a humungous advantage to communicate telepathically, see the future or remote locations, or manipulate the physical world by thinking, that there’s no way evolution wouldn’t have optimised the f* out of it by now.
We don’t wonder whether birds have wings, or whether dogs have a sense of smell. That we can wonder whether we might have psychic powers means we DON’T, to a very high probability indeed.
Cellphones are advantageous too—yet their evolution seems to be currently in progress. That should be enough to indicate why this line of argument fails.
Just because an ability would be useful doesn’t mean that evolution could (or would, if reaching that ability required several intermediate steps with very low fitness advantages) optimize it without limit.
The ability to digest literally everything we put in our mouths would be useful as well, but the fact that we don’t have that doesn’t mean we need to reject evolution.
I’m not talking about an ability (like digesting cellulose) which would be really advantageous but we don’t have and would require a lot of unlikely steps. The non-null hypothesis of human psychic powers is that we do already have them and ancient humans did too. Yet we don’t seem to have evolved psychic abilities that are even detectable by now.
Compare: the abilies to cope with milk and beer in our diet have been evolving in humans since the invention of dairy farming and brewing (a few thousand years ago?) There is large population variation in these digestive abilities after that short time.
Would the selection pressure in favour of telepathy be that much less than for drinking beer?
The problem here is that you’re assuming a) psychic abilities would have some degree of heritability, instead of being random accidents that aren’t passed on genetically, and b) that psychic abilities can vary in degree, so that there could be selection pressure to make them larger, instead of being binary.
Also consider that psychic abilities in small amounts could have detrimental effects on fitness: for instance, they could make you more sensitive to bad moods, more temperamental, or even insane.
Beer consumption has all sorts of implications for social interaction and waterborne disease, and in some environments, there are no close substitutes. Digestive efficiency is a major factor in survival, one way or another; not being able to cope with the food and drink you’ve got can kill you, and synthesizing a lot of tricky enzymes you don’t need (or, equivalently, hosting intestinal flora which aren’t pulling their weight) can also kill you.
Telepathy, on the other hand, doesn’t seem to involve enough of the body to have significant metabolic effects one way or another, and is unreliable and vague even for the best performers. What life-or-death/reproduce-or-don’t outcomes would it be exerting selection pressure through?
What life-or-death/reproduce-or-don’t outcomes would it be exerting selection pressure through?
The ability to find someone willing to reproduce with you? Or a heightened ability to persuade someone to do so? Earlier warning of malicious intent from a potential murderer?
Small statistical effects accumulate over evolutionary timescales. Ifr telepathy is unreliable and vague, but is more reliable than chance and less vague than making stuff up, it will be selected for, even if the effects of telepathy are very difficult to detect on an individual scale.
309 times 46 is 14 214, which divided by 52 equals approximately 273 unpublished studies per year. I haven’t seen any figures on how many studies were conducted for e.g. a specific experimental paradigm in psychology during that time, so I can’t say for certain how plausible this is or isn’t. It does sound a bit high considering that parapsychology hasn’t exactly been the best-funded field around, though it might have had more money in the 1930′s. Does anyone have numbers?
I’m not saying there were 14k unpublished completed full studies, I’m suggesting that what got published was already biased. There is room for selection bias at every level of a study, including which trials and which methods are finally taken, written up, and submitted. If the ‘scientists’ are trying to prove that psi exists, they can find it, one or another. Fraud isn’t even required, just wishful thinking. The consistency of the effect is interesting, but may only be measuring the psychological phenomenon of deliberate self-deception.-- ah we’ve discovered the threshold deviation from chance at which people will believe their own crap hasn’t been tampered by their own meddling.
Think about the alternative explanation: If the forced choice test is run properly- the subject guesses which order 5 symbols in a 25 card deck will appear before the deck has been shuffled. The deck is then shuffled by machine (or associate) in a different room, and the order of the cards are examined. Now, how do you propose the subject is entangled with the card shuffling machine and deck, without violating current physical law, such that he can predict the order? This is magical thinking, with no basis in reality as we know it. Unless there is a pattern in the card shuffling machine and some people are very aware of it due to practice with it… but that is hardly psi.
I’m not saying that psi must be real, only that it seems to merit a closer look than most people in this thread have been implying. Yes, it does seem rather unlikely that psi would exist, which is why I’m still undecided myself. But the fact that we can’t come up with any physical explanation for it doesn’t mean that it couldn’t be real. As Yvain pointed out, Newton’s theories may at the time have seemed like magical thinking as well. There could be some physical mechanism we’re just not aware of, but which the brain has nonetheless evolved to take advantage of.
Or then it might just be a sign of our statistical methods being flawed, made worse by psi researchers being insufficiently rigorous in their methods.
“I’m not saying that psi must be real, only that it seems to merit a closer look than most people in this thread have been implying.”
I strongly disagree. Psi has been looked at very intensively for a very long time, and the best it can yield is that it’s not completely statistically insignificant. No theories have been posed as to how it works, it hasn’t been quantified (ie, how far away, in what time frame can the subject predict the future), and it cannot be demonstrated reliably and repeatedly from even a few individuals who could then be studied more elaborately. Even one person who could always predict the order of a deck of cards would be fascinating. At some point, you just have to say a line of research does not merit further study.
In the mean time, giving these theories credence wastes time and resources and leads people to think they can believe anything they want about the world, including the outstanding religious dogma, since, hey, you never know.
Here’s a closer look: to accept psi, you would have to reject evolutionary biology.
It would be such a humungous advantage to communicate telepathically, see the future or remote locations, or manipulate the physical world by thinking, that there’s no way evolution wouldn’t have optimised the f* out of it by now.
We don’t wonder whether birds have wings, or whether dogs have a sense of smell. That we can wonder whether we might have psychic powers means we DON’T, to a very high probability indeed.
Cellphones are advantageous too—yet their evolution seems to be currently in progress. That should be enough to indicate why this line of argument fails.
Just because an ability would be useful doesn’t mean that evolution could (or would, if reaching that ability required several intermediate steps with very low fitness advantages) optimize it without limit.
The ability to digest literally everything we put in our mouths would be useful as well, but the fact that we don’t have that doesn’t mean we need to reject evolution.
Voted up for making me think harder.
I’m not talking about an ability (like digesting cellulose) which would be really advantageous but we don’t have and would require a lot of unlikely steps. The non-null hypothesis of human psychic powers is that we do already have them and ancient humans did too. Yet we don’t seem to have evolved psychic abilities that are even detectable by now.
Compare: the abilies to cope with milk and beer in our diet have been evolving in humans since the invention of dairy farming and brewing (a few thousand years ago?) There is large population variation in these digestive abilities after that short time.
Would the selection pressure in favour of telepathy be that much less than for drinking beer?
The problem here is that you’re assuming a) psychic abilities would have some degree of heritability, instead of being random accidents that aren’t passed on genetically, and b) that psychic abilities can vary in degree, so that there could be selection pressure to make them larger, instead of being binary.
Also consider that psychic abilities in small amounts could have detrimental effects on fitness: for instance, they could make you more sensitive to bad moods, more temperamental, or even insane.
Beer consumption has all sorts of implications for social interaction and waterborne disease, and in some environments, there are no close substitutes. Digestive efficiency is a major factor in survival, one way or another; not being able to cope with the food and drink you’ve got can kill you, and synthesizing a lot of tricky enzymes you don’t need (or, equivalently, hosting intestinal flora which aren’t pulling their weight) can also kill you.
Telepathy, on the other hand, doesn’t seem to involve enough of the body to have significant metabolic effects one way or another, and is unreliable and vague even for the best performers. What life-or-death/reproduce-or-don’t outcomes would it be exerting selection pressure through?
The ability to find someone willing to reproduce with you? Or a heightened ability to persuade someone to do so? Earlier warning of malicious intent from a potential murderer?
Small statistical effects accumulate over evolutionary timescales. Ifr telepathy is unreliable and vague, but is more reliable than chance and less vague than making stuff up, it will be selected for, even if the effects of telepathy are very difficult to detect on an individual scale.
This does mean estimating it to be much more probably real than seems reasonable at this point.