Is the lack of existence of a working Finely Tuned Wobbliebit Machine (FTW Machine) evidence that the FTW Machine destroys the universe?
Assuming that you accept certain versions of the anthropic principle, and if you would have expected someone to have figured out a way to build the Finely Tuned Wobbliebit Machine for quite some time now, and mysterious accidents kept happening to people on the verge of figuring out how to build the FTW machine, then yes.
EDIT It probably also helps the plausibility if there are people who quite strongly believe that the FTW machine would destroy the world, though only if you think such people are likely to have arrived at those beliefs correctly. Which isn’t the (then) current situation.
The third one isn’t strictly required, but you would probably see it if this version of the anthropic principle were at work, and so if you didn’t see this, it would be strong counter-evidence.
The second assumption is required because when you’re doing anthropic reasoning, you are essentially performing a bayesian update in response to the evidence that you are alive and performing a bayesian update. If this is more likely given some hypothesis than another. And P(I am alive| The FTW machine destroys the universe) ~= P(I am alive | The FTW machine does not destroy the universe), until the point at which the FTW machine would be built. (This was briefly alluded to in the post, with the line “Does this mean we can foresee executing a future probability update, but can’t go ahead and update now?”)
The FTW Machine wasn’t built last week, because I had a cold. It wasn’t built the week before, because… &etc.
This means that if I continue to procrastinate for more and more unlikely reasons, then I have evidence that cleaning off my desk destroys the universe?
This means that if I continue to procrastinate for more and more unlikely reasons, then I have evidence that cleaning off my desk destroys the universe?
Well, yes but.
Because really, you continuing to procrastinate for more and more unlikely (stated) reasons is also evidence that superintelligent dolphins living on Venus are employing mind control to prevent you from cleaning off your desk, in order to further their nefarious schemes against the wild fleets of caribou on Mercury. This hypothesis does increase in probability, but there’s a hypothesis with a much higher prior probability (you’re just lazy) which will always dominate it. It counts as evidence, but on its own, it’s never going to become a hypothesis likely enough to warrant serious consideration.
Going back to the original point: Why do breakdowns of the LHC provide evidence that the LHC destroys the universe? The ‘destroys the universe’ hypothesis gains no ground on the ‘sabotage’ hypothesis nor the ‘engineers building something for the first time ever make errors’ hypothesis.
The only thing it does is falsify the ‘Everything goes off without a hitch’ hypothesis, and makes the set of ‘everything goes off with n or fewer hitches’ hypotheses less likely.
Unless the breakdowns are such that they would be unlikely under those hypotheses, they don’t gain ground. I do seem to recall hearing something once about a sandwich getting dropped into a piece of the apparatus, which screwed things up for a while. That may not have actually happened, but that’s the sort of event that would (under certain versions of the anthropic principle) provide evidence that the LHC destroys the world.
ADDITION: It would also be strong evidence if the LHC suffered these sorts of breakdowns when we attempted certain types of collisions, but not others.
Regarding your edit: I certainly agree that assertions that are quite strongly believed by people who are likely to have arrived at those beliefs correctly tend to be more plausible than assertions that aren’t. But that has nothing to do with whether any given observed fact is evidence of such a belief.
You’re correct. I was thinking in terms of “what evidence would be required for me to conclude that the FTW machine destroys the universe, and was visualizing other people coming to that conclusion for theoretical reasons as assisting in locating that hypothesis.
Assuming that you accept certain versions of the anthropic principle, and if you would have expected someone to have figured out a way to build the Finely Tuned Wobbliebit Machine for quite some time now, and mysterious accidents kept happening to people on the verge of figuring out how to build the FTW machine, then yes.
EDIT It probably also helps the plausibility if there are people who quite strongly believe that the FTW machine would destroy the world, though only if you think such people are likely to have arrived at those beliefs correctly. Which isn’t the (then) current situation.
Why are the second and third assumptions required?
The third one isn’t strictly required, but you would probably see it if this version of the anthropic principle were at work, and so if you didn’t see this, it would be strong counter-evidence.
The second assumption is required because when you’re doing anthropic reasoning, you are essentially performing a bayesian update in response to the evidence that you are alive and performing a bayesian update. If this is more likely given some hypothesis than another. And P(I am alive| The FTW machine destroys the universe) ~= P(I am alive | The FTW machine does not destroy the universe), until the point at which the FTW machine would be built. (This was briefly alluded to in the post, with the line “Does this mean we can foresee executing a future probability update, but can’t go ahead and update now?”)
The FTW Machine wasn’t built last week, because I had a cold. It wasn’t built the week before, because… &etc.
This means that if I continue to procrastinate for more and more unlikely reasons, then I have evidence that cleaning off my desk destroys the universe?
Well, yes but.
Because really, you continuing to procrastinate for more and more unlikely (stated) reasons is also evidence that superintelligent dolphins living on Venus are employing mind control to prevent you from cleaning off your desk, in order to further their nefarious schemes against the wild fleets of caribou on Mercury. This hypothesis does increase in probability, but there’s a hypothesis with a much higher prior probability (you’re just lazy) which will always dominate it. It counts as evidence, but on its own, it’s never going to become a hypothesis likely enough to warrant serious consideration.
Going back to the original point: Why do breakdowns of the LHC provide evidence that the LHC destroys the universe? The ‘destroys the universe’ hypothesis gains no ground on the ‘sabotage’ hypothesis nor the ‘engineers building something for the first time ever make errors’ hypothesis.
The only thing it does is falsify the ‘Everything goes off without a hitch’ hypothesis, and makes the set of ‘everything goes off with n or fewer hitches’ hypotheses less likely.
Unless the breakdowns are such that they would be unlikely under those hypotheses, they don’t gain ground. I do seem to recall hearing something once about a sandwich getting dropped into a piece of the apparatus, which screwed things up for a while. That may not have actually happened, but that’s the sort of event that would (under certain versions of the anthropic principle) provide evidence that the LHC destroys the world.
ADDITION: It would also be strong evidence if the LHC suffered these sorts of breakdowns when we attempted certain types of collisions, but not others.
Regarding your edit: I certainly agree that assertions that are quite strongly believed by people who are likely to have arrived at those beliefs correctly tend to be more plausible than assertions that aren’t. But that has nothing to do with whether any given observed fact is evidence of such a belief.
You’re correct. I was thinking in terms of “what evidence would be required for me to conclude that the FTW machine destroys the universe, and was visualizing other people coming to that conclusion for theoretical reasons as assisting in locating that hypothesis.