If you are at least 99% confident that there’s a million dollars in the box, there will be. If you’re less confident than that, it will be empty.
“Your confidence that there’s a million dollars in the box” does not uniquely identify a value, even at a single point in time. The mind has more than one method for representing and calculating likelihoods, some of which are under conscious control and may be overridden for game-theoretic reasons, and some of which aren’t.
“Your confidence that there’s a million dollars in the box” does not uniquely identify a value, even at a single point in time. The mind has more than one method for representing and calculating likelihoods, some of which are under conscious control and may be overridden for game-theoretic reasons, and some of which aren’t.
These are technical issues with the hypothetical, irrelevant to its intended sense.