As mentioned in a comment above, one of the (pretty highly credentialed) authors of this preprint has written two papers on the Diamond Princess, and so, excuse the appeal to authority, but any argument against this paper based on Diamond Princess doesn’t seem likely to invalidate conclusions of this preprint .
Also this squares seemingly squares more with John Ioannidis take on Corona:
“no countries have reliable data on the prevalence of the virus in a representative random sample of the general population.”
And that airborn-ish transmission is highly likely.
Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%.
I don’t find a source for this. The adjustments I saw looked different. If he’s right about those 0.125%, that would be an important update!
But it feels more plausible to me that the 0.125% thing went wrong somewhere because it just seems ruled out by South Korea, which unlike European countries has their outbreak contained. I can’t see how South Korea could somehow have missed 700% of their reported cases even though they are conducting 10,000 tests daily, and have fewer than 10,000 confirmed cases.
UPDATE: I took a shot at doing the age adjustment myself here. The summary: I don’t see how one can get anything below 0.3% and, adjusting for selection effects where the least healthy people probably avoid going on cruises, even going below 0.5% seems implausible to me. UPDATE2: I adjusted my estimates after finding more precise data. I still think 0.125% is too low, but I think something like 0.2% is perhaps already defensible. This suggests that the estimate was closer than I thought and I now consider the Diamond Princess not to be evidence in favor of IFR of 0.5% or higher (assuming no hospital overstrain).
As mentioned in a comment above, one of the (pretty highly credentialed) authors of this preprint has written two papers on the Diamond Princess, and so, excuse the appeal to authority, but any argument against this paper based on Diamond Princess doesn’t seem likely to invalidate conclusions of this preprint .
Interesting, I wasn’t aware of that! Makes me upshift that I was wrong, but also upshift that one author is responsible for several studies that I found dubious.
I looked through his list of publications and it seems he finished 2 papers on the prevalence of asymptomatic cases on the Diamond princess already (but not on fatality rates from there!). And the second one reports a point estimate that is outside the 95% confidence interval of the first paper, yet I don’t see any addendum to the first paper. This seems kind of odd?
And that airborn-ish transmission is highly likely.
I don’t have strong views on that. The only thing I feel confident about is that an IFR of below 0.5% seems extremely implausible.
As mentioned in a comment above, one of the (pretty highly credentialed) authors of this preprint has written two papers on the Diamond Princess, and so, excuse the appeal to authority, but any argument against this paper based on Diamond Princess doesn’t seem likely to invalidate conclusions of this preprint .
Also this squares seemingly squares more with John Ioannidis take on Corona:
“no countries have reliable data on the prevalence of the virus in a representative random sample of the general population.”
And that airborn-ish transmission is highly likely.
Ioannidis makes this claim:
I don’t find a source for this. The adjustments I saw looked different. If he’s right about those 0.125%, that would be an important update!
But it feels more plausible to me that the 0.125% thing went wrong somewhere because it just seems ruled out by South Korea, which unlike European countries has their outbreak contained. I can’t see how South Korea could somehow have missed 700% of their reported cases even though they are conducting 10,000 tests daily, and have fewer than 10,000 confirmed cases.
UPDATE: I took a shot at doing the age adjustment myself here. The summary: I don’t see how one can get anything below 0.3% and, adjusting for selection effects where the least healthy people probably avoid going on cruises, even going below 0.5% seems implausible to me. UPDATE2: I adjusted my estimates after finding more precise data. I still think 0.125% is too low, but I think something like 0.2% is perhaps already defensible. This suggests that the estimate was closer than I thought and I now consider the Diamond Princess not to be evidence in favor of IFR of 0.5% or higher (assuming no hospital overstrain).
Interesting, I wasn’t aware of that! Makes me upshift that I was wrong, but also upshift that one author is responsible for several studies that I found dubious.
I looked through his list of publications and it seems he finished 2 papers on the prevalence of asymptomatic cases on the Diamond princess already (but not on fatality rates from there!). And the second one reports a point estimate that is outside the 95% confidence interval of the first paper, yet I don’t see any addendum to the first paper. This seems kind of odd?
I don’t have strong views on that. The only thing I feel confident about is that an IFR of below 0.5% seems extremely implausible.