This method requires the comparison of two countries with sufficient confirmed cases and reported deaths. One country (target country) will be adjusted, given the information from the second country (benchmark country). In order to adjust for the difference in the population demographics of the target country, T, and the benchmark country, B, we compute a Vulnerability Factor (VTB).
Am I right that they’re not factoring in that patients had worse prospects in Wuhan than in South Korea? I feel like whatever the outcome of their adjustment process, that value would need to be multiplied by a factor >1 which represents hospital overstrain in Hubei, where at least 60% of China’s numbers stem from (probably more but I haven’t looked it up). I don’t know how large that adjustment should be exactly, but I find it weird that there’s no discussion of this. Am missing something about the methodology (maybe it factors in such differences automatically somehow)?
Ah, OK: They list this as an assumption:
[Assumption]Treatment has minor influence on outcome The provided healthcare in countries is comparable. For developed countries such as Italy and South Korea, it is assumed that the population has similar access to treatment. The death rates reported by age group are thus applicable in all countries
This is important to keep in mind when we try to derive implications from their estimate. Especially if we look at the hospitalization rates estimated here on page 5. For this disease in particular where people sometimes have to stay in hospitals for several weeks, it’s hard to imagine that treatment only makes a small difference.
From the paper:
Am I right that they’re not factoring in that patients had worse prospects in Wuhan than in South Korea? I feel like whatever the outcome of their adjustment process, that value would need to be multiplied by a factor >1 which represents hospital overstrain in Hubei, where at least 60% of China’s numbers stem from (probably more but I haven’t looked it up). I don’t know how large that adjustment should be exactly, but I find it weird that there’s no discussion of this. Am missing something about the methodology (maybe it factors in such differences automatically somehow)?
Ah, OK: They list this as an assumption:
This is important to keep in mind when we try to derive implications from their estimate. Especially if we look at the hospitalization rates estimated here on page 5. For this disease in particular where people sometimes have to stay in hospitals for several weeks, it’s hard to imagine that treatment only makes a small difference.