There will be more than 5.5 book reviews submitted before 10/13/21
Elicit prediction for the probability that there will be more than 5.5 submissions that receive a payout by October 13th (the title doesn’t mention receiving a payout, but I intended for it to).
My thinking: a quick scan of the Book Reviews tag indicates about 2.5 posts with that tag per month. I suppose another 0.5-1 or so are book reviews but just haven’t been tagged as such. So that is my baseline. From there, I expect the $500 reward to give a solid bump, but nothing too crazy.
Based on the Book Reviews tag scan, this has been a smashing success. My scan around lunch showed ~33 entries which are “1 month” or younger. However, I don’t know how many will get payouts.
I will have to count. I’ve been paying out for the ones that meet the bar (quite a few! most?) and who have requested payment. I’ll say this again in a public post, but if you’ve written a book review and would like to claim the bounty, please message me on Intercom.
Elicit prediction for the probability that there will be more than 5.5 submissions that receive a payout by October 13th (the title doesn’t mention receiving a payout, but I intended for it to).
My thinking: a quick scan of the Book Reviews tag indicates about 2.5 posts with that tag per month. I suppose another 0.5-1 or so are book reviews but just haven’t been tagged as such. So that is my baseline. From there, I expect the $500 reward to give a solid bump, but nothing too crazy.
Based on the Book Reviews tag scan, this has been a smashing success. My scan around lunch showed ~33 entries which are “1 month” or younger. However, I don’t know how many will get payouts.
Yup! Mods: would you mind sharing how many have received payouts?
I will have to count. I’ve been paying out for the ones that meet the bar (quite a few! most?) and who have requested payment. I’ll say this again in a public post, but if you’ve written a book review and would like to claim the bounty, please message me on Intercom.
Sounds like enough to justify resolving the question as “yes” :) Thanks for the response Ruby.