I’ve refused to use it as a prior for future events simply because I am afraid of jinxing it.
Error: Conflict between belief module and anticipation module detected!
If the universe really followed Pascal’s Goldpan, it seems like there ought to be some way to reliably turn that into a large amount of money...
Yes, like I said, it’s a tricky epistemic situation to be in.
Utility is more valuable than money. And the universe doesn’t have to follow Pascal’s Goldpan for you or for most people. It happens to for me, or so I anticipate but do not believe.
If the universe really followed Pascal’s Goldpan
Prior probabilities are a feature of maps, not of territories… or am I missing something?
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Error: Conflict between belief module and anticipation module detected!
If the universe really followed Pascal’s Goldpan, it seems like there ought to be some way to reliably turn that into a large amount of money...
Yes, like I said, it’s a tricky epistemic situation to be in.
Utility is more valuable than money. And the universe doesn’t have to follow Pascal’s Goldpan for you or for most people. It happens to for me, or so I anticipate but do not believe.
Prior probabilities are a feature of maps, not of territories… or am I missing something?