Would you have a link to a resource that would help understand that 9% you mention on this comment? How does it work? What shares should be bought in order to have been able to take advantage of this trade? Thanks
I don’t have a link off the top of my head, but the trade would have been to sell one share of yes for each market. You can do this by splitting $1 into a Yes and No share, and selling the Yes. Specifically in Polymarket you achieve this by adding and then withdrawing liquidity (for a specific type of markets called “amm’, for “automatic market marker”, which were the only ones supported by Polymarket at the time, though it since then also supports an order book).
By doing this, you earn $1.09 from the sale + $3 from the three events eventually, and the whole thing costs $4, so it’s a guaranteed profit. So I guess that I was making a mistake when I said that there was a 9% in 1.5 months (there is a $4.09/$4, or a 2.25% return over 1.5 months, which is much worse).
One particularity of polymarket is that you couldn’t as of the time of this market divide $1 into four shares and sell all of them for $1.09. If you could have—well, then this problem wouldn’t have existed—but if you could have then this would have been a 9%.
Got it. Seems to me that it only works on liquid markets right? If the spread is significant you pay much more than what you can sell it for and hence do not get the .09 difference?
Would you have a link to a resource that would help understand that 9% you mention on this comment? How does it work? What shares should be bought in order to have been able to take advantage of this trade? Thanks
I don’t have a link off the top of my head, but the trade would have been to sell one share of yes for each market. You can do this by splitting $1 into a Yes and No share, and selling the Yes. Specifically in Polymarket you achieve this by adding and then withdrawing liquidity (for a specific type of markets called “amm’, for “automatic market marker”, which were the only ones supported by Polymarket at the time, though it since then also supports an order book).
By doing this, you earn $1.09 from the sale + $3 from the three events eventually, and the whole thing costs $4, so it’s a guaranteed profit. So I guess that I was making a mistake when I said that there was a 9% in 1.5 months (there is a $4.09/$4, or a 2.25% return over 1.5 months, which is much worse).
One particularity of polymarket is that you couldn’t as of the time of this market divide $1 into four shares and sell all of them for $1.09. If you could have—well, then this problem wouldn’t have existed—but if you could have then this would have been a 9%.
Got it. Seems to me that it only works on liquid markets right? If the spread is significant you pay much more than what you can sell it for and hence do not get the .09 difference?