Also, the Which of these 4 countries (United States, France, Italy, Spain) will have the highest Covid-19 Case average per capita on March 1st? market still sums up to $1.09. And I would very much like that 9% in 1.5 months return. But the liquidity is low enough that selling 100 yes shares of each market only nets you $3. I’m also a bit wary of selection effects; the market has started favored France, and since it’s otherwise close to your probabilities, I’m going to guess that you’re wrong or only giving 35% to France (or, I’m not confident enough to guess that you’re right to bet on it without doing much research.)
Would you have a link to a resource that would help understand that 9% you mention on this comment? How does it work? What shares should be bought in order to have been able to take advantage of this trade? Thanks
I don’t have a link off the top of my head, but the trade would have been to sell one share of yes for each market. You can do this by splitting $1 into a Yes and No share, and selling the Yes. Specifically in Polymarket you achieve this by adding and then withdrawing liquidity (for a specific type of markets called “amm’, for “automatic market marker”, which were the only ones supported by Polymarket at the time, though it since then also supports an order book).
By doing this, you earn $1.09 from the sale + $3 from the three events eventually, and the whole thing costs $4, so it’s a guaranteed profit. So I guess that I was making a mistake when I said that there was a 9% in 1.5 months (there is a $4.09/$4, or a 2.25% return over 1.5 months, which is much worse).
One particularity of polymarket is that you couldn’t as of the time of this market divide $1 into four shares and sell all of them for $1.09. If you could have—well, then this problem wouldn’t have existed—but if you could have then this would have been a 9%.
Got it. Seems to me that it only works on liquid markets right? If the spread is significant you pay much more than what you can sell it for and hence do not get the .09 difference?
By the time I am writing this, most of the juicy trades are fixed now. Still, I made the following trades:
Will the U.S. 7-day COVID-19 Case average be below 100,000 by February 15, 2022?.
Had gone down to $0.05, where you recommended a $0.15. I bought it up to $0.08
Will the U.S. 7-day COVID-19 Case average be below 100,000 by March 15, 2022?
It was at $0.59, and you recommended buying it to $0.70. The liquidity is deep, so buying a fair amount didn’t really move the price.]
Also, the Which of these 4 countries (United States, France, Italy, Spain) will have the highest Covid-19 Case average per capita on March 1st? market still sums up to $1.09. And I would very much like that 9% in 1.5 months return. But the liquidity is low enough that selling 100 yes shares of each market only nets you $3. I’m also a bit wary of selection effects; the market has started favored France, and since it’s otherwise close to your probabilities, I’m going to guess that you’re wrong or only giving 35% to France (or, I’m not confident enough to guess that you’re right to bet on it without doing much research.)
Would you have a link to a resource that would help understand that 9% you mention on this comment? How does it work? What shares should be bought in order to have been able to take advantage of this trade? Thanks
I don’t have a link off the top of my head, but the trade would have been to sell one share of yes for each market. You can do this by splitting $1 into a Yes and No share, and selling the Yes. Specifically in Polymarket you achieve this by adding and then withdrawing liquidity (for a specific type of markets called “amm’, for “automatic market marker”, which were the only ones supported by Polymarket at the time, though it since then also supports an order book).
By doing this, you earn $1.09 from the sale + $3 from the three events eventually, and the whole thing costs $4, so it’s a guaranteed profit. So I guess that I was making a mistake when I said that there was a 9% in 1.5 months (there is a $4.09/$4, or a 2.25% return over 1.5 months, which is much worse).
One particularity of polymarket is that you couldn’t as of the time of this market divide $1 into four shares and sell all of them for $1.09. If you could have—well, then this problem wouldn’t have existed—but if you could have then this would have been a 9%.
Got it. Seems to me that it only works on liquid markets right? If the spread is significant you pay much more than what you can sell it for and hence do not get the .09 difference?