I don’t think this argument quite works? Like, suppose each base civilization simulates 100,000 civilizations. 100 are confused and think they’re base civilizations, and the rest are non-confused and know they’re simulations being run by a base civilization. In this world, most civilizations are right about their status, but most civilizations who think they’re base civilizations are wrong.
I’m calling people who know where they are (i.e. are not confused) not in simulations, for the sake of argument. But this shouldn’t matter, except for understanding each other.
It sounds like you are saying that ~100x more people live in confused simulations than base reality, but I’m questioning that. The resources to run a brain are about the same whether it’s a ‘simulation’ or a mind in touch with the real world. Why would future civilization spend radically more resources on simulations than on minds in the world? (Or if the non-confused simulations are also relevantly minds in the world, then there are a lot more of them than the confused simulations, so we are back to quite low probability of being mistaken.)
(I plan on continuing the conversation there, not here)
I don’t think this argument quite works? Like, suppose each base civilization simulates 100,000 civilizations. 100 are confused and think they’re base civilizations, and the rest are non-confused and know they’re simulations being run by a base civilization. In this world, most civilizations are right about their status, but most civilizations who think they’re base civilizations are wrong.
Katja responds on substack:
(I plan on continuing the conversation there, not here)