I’m calling people who know where they are (i.e. are not confused) not in simulations, for the sake of argument. But this shouldn’t matter, except for understanding each other.
It sounds like you are saying that ~100x more people live in confused simulations than base reality, but I’m questioning that. The resources to run a brain are about the same whether it’s a ‘simulation’ or a mind in touch with the real world. Why would future civilization spend radically more resources on simulations than on minds in the world? (Or if the non-confused simulations are also relevantly minds in the world, then there are a lot more of them than the confused simulations, so we are back to quite low probability of being mistaken.)
(I plan on continuing the conversation there, not here)
Katja responds on substack:
(I plan on continuing the conversation there, not here)