I notice I am confused. Why would whether or not something is adequate to a task depend on whether they could have done better with the resources they had available? Academia is inadequate to teaching my three year old to play the violin. That’s not because they’re bad at it, or doing anything wrong, or that someone should be adequate to that task. It’s just not something they can do.
You’re arguing, it seems to me, that academia is acting correctly when it refuses to be adequate at examining such claims. That it would not be a good or rational use of its resources to be adequate. I’m not even going to disagree with that. If I decide to devote more resources to an area, presumably I should be able to do better than those who think the problem isn’t worth their time. Even if it isn’t worth their time!
That last sentence I don’t understand at all. The consensus is a probability distribution, or else it’s deeply terrible. If I get new information I should update on that information using Bayes. If the consensus says it’s (probably) not raining and I look outside and see rain, I update or I’m being insane. People can and do incorporate fundamentally different ideas into their world models every day. To suggest it can’t be done confuses me.
There is no consensus on what the consensus is, or on how to do epistemology generally. There is no separate standpoint on the sum total of topics that academics discuss from which it can be evaluated. This meta-convoluted recursion is why you can’t apply one-size-fits-all mechnaical solutions like Bayes. See Chapman on Bayes.
If I get new information I should update on that information using Bayes. If the consensus says it’s (probably) not raining and I look outside and see rain, I update or I’m being insane
You can’t infer from simple cases to complex ones.
People can and do incorporate fundamentally different ideas into their world models every day.
That’s not evidence that it’s being done with Bayes.
Why would whether or not something is adequate to a task depend on whether they could have done better with the resources they had availab
Inadequacy of a kind worth complaining about is inadequacy is inadeqaucy that can be reasonaby be fixed. That leads to the possibility of a kind of fallacy where someone is condemned for inadeqacy that isnt actually culpable. “The government are wicked becasue they haven’t given eveyone gold palaces to live in”.
Inadequate equilibria is about the other kind. The point about an inadeauate equilbrium is that there is some possibility of getting into a better one.
This started with a complaint that academia wasn’t taking enough notice of Bostrom’s work. Well, if they are failing to notice it becasue of some fixable problem like bad incentives, then that is one kind of inadeuacy. If they are just too damn busy, like Aaronson, that is the other kind.
I notice I am confused. Why would whether or not something is adequate to a task depend on whether they could have done better with the resources they had available? Academia is inadequate to teaching my three year old to play the violin. That’s not because they’re bad at it, or doing anything wrong, or that someone should be adequate to that task. It’s just not something they can do.
You’re arguing, it seems to me, that academia is acting correctly when it refuses to be adequate at examining such claims. That it would not be a good or rational use of its resources to be adequate. I’m not even going to disagree with that. If I decide to devote more resources to an area, presumably I should be able to do better than those who think the problem isn’t worth their time. Even if it isn’t worth their time!
That last sentence I don’t understand at all. The consensus is a probability distribution, or else it’s deeply terrible. If I get new information I should update on that information using Bayes. If the consensus says it’s (probably) not raining and I look outside and see rain, I update or I’m being insane. People can and do incorporate fundamentally different ideas into their world models every day. To suggest it can’t be done confuses me.
There is no consensus on what the consensus is, or on how to do epistemology generally. There is no separate standpoint on the sum total of topics that academics discuss from which it can be evaluated. This meta-convoluted recursion is why you can’t apply one-size-fits-all mechnaical solutions like Bayes. See Chapman on Bayes.
You can’t infer from simple cases to complex ones.
That’s not evidence that it’s being done with Bayes.
Inadequacy of a kind worth complaining about is inadequacy is inadeqaucy that can be reasonaby be fixed. That leads to the possibility of a kind of fallacy where someone is condemned for inadeqacy that isnt actually culpable. “The government are wicked becasue they haven’t given eveyone gold palaces to live in”.
Inadequate equilibria is about the other kind. The point about an inadeauate equilbrium is that there is some possibility of getting into a better one.
This started with a complaint that academia wasn’t taking enough notice of Bostrom’s work. Well, if they are failing to notice it becasue of some fixable problem like bad incentives, then that is one kind of inadeuacy. If they are just too damn busy, like Aaronson, that is the other kind.