This assumes that the debate and possible solution set lies along a straight line, in which case reversed stupidity is very close to intelligence. In situations where this is strictly the case, this method might not be bad, and in markets if you can manage to buy when the idiots sell and sell when the idiots buy (again, along a straight line of possible values) in my experience you end up doing well, if you can figure out which end of the rope is which. JGWeissman, I wouldn’t worry about overcancellation too much because the number of idiots is large and the number of people willing to employ heuristics like this is small.
In most situations of this type the best solutions lie far from the rope and even the smart people have long since given up doing anything but pulling. If that is not possible, and there is no cost to pull on the rope, trying to cancel out the idiots is on average likely to be better than doing nothing, but I certainly wouldn’t think this is a good primary methodology to make decisions.
This assumes that the debate and possible solution set lies along a straight line, in which case reversed stupidity is very close to intelligence. In situations where this is strictly the case, this method might not be bad, and in markets if you can manage to buy when the idiots sell and sell when the idiots buy (again, along a straight line of possible values) in my experience you end up doing well, if you can figure out which end of the rope is which. JGWeissman, I wouldn’t worry about overcancellation too much because the number of idiots is large and the number of people willing to employ heuristics like this is small.
In most situations of this type the best solutions lie far from the rope and even the smart people have long since given up doing anything but pulling. If that is not possible, and there is no cost to pull on the rope, trying to cancel out the idiots is on average likely to be better than doing nothing, but I certainly wouldn’t think this is a good primary methodology to make decisions.