Market is implied by Bloomberg to be in danger of Bayes Hell. This graph is from Wednesday morning.
I’m guessing the graph was produced by taking some measure of the EV of interest rate, and incorrectly interpreting (say) 0.65% as a 3⁄5 chance of a 0.50% hike and 2⁄5 chance of a 0.75% hike. Not sure why they do this.
I’m guessing the graph was produced by taking some measure of the EV of interest rate, and incorrectly interpreting (say) 0.65% as a 3⁄5 chance of a 0.50% hike and 2⁄5 chance of a 0.75% hike. Not sure why they do this.