I’m curious if someone more knowledgeable can help me understand how to think about a vaccine that is 80% effective. Is the idea that each person will have a high chance of being essentially immune, and a low chance of having minimal protection? Alternatively, does it offer approximately 80% protection to everyone, the way that masks and social distancing would?
If it’s the latter, it seems like risk compensation could largely undo the effects of an 80% effective vaccine. If I see my family once a week without a mask, and I start going back to the gym, I could easily increase my risk by a factor of 4-5x.
If this is the case, I wonder if we can use the side effects that we get from the vaccination as evidence on a personal level for whether we fall into the immune group. At a glance it seems that their presence would mean successful and strong activation of the immune response, so it would be more likely to end up working for us? Not sure if there is a correlation here and how strong it might be.
It’s between-subjects, these aren’t realprobabilities for individuals. But from a Bayesian standpoint it gives you useful base rates with which to assess risk.
I’m curious if someone more knowledgeable can help me understand how to think about a vaccine that is 80% effective. Is the idea that each person will have a high chance of being essentially immune, and a low chance of having minimal protection? Alternatively, does it offer approximately 80% protection to everyone, the way that masks and social distancing would?
If it’s the latter, it seems like risk compensation could largely undo the effects of an 80% effective vaccine. If I see my family once a week without a mask, and I start going back to the gym, I could easily increase my risk by a factor of 4-5x.
No one knows the mix of those two, and it would be great if anyone could give us a straight answer with any confidence, but so far, no luck.
My guess it’s mostly you’re either immune or mostly immune, or you’re not, but I’d really like higher confidence.
If this is the case, I wonder if we can use the side effects that we get from the vaccination as evidence on a personal level for whether we fall into the immune group. At a glance it seems that their presence would mean successful and strong activation of the immune response, so it would be more likely to end up working for us? Not sure if there is a correlation here and how strong it might be.
It’s between-subjects, these aren’t real probabilities for individuals. But from a Bayesian standpoint it gives you useful base rates with which to assess risk.