Russia’s higher death toll might or might not be mostly Covid, but I figured its population wasn’t high enough. Even if all of Russia gets it, they’d need a pretty high fatality rate to catch us given what was likely happening here. Brazil similarly I figured wouldn’t document all that well and had a smaller pop.
2. I still think that there’s enough different ways this can fail that 30% is reasonable, and I dunno where the 29% comes from here? Presumably it would be higher than the 30% baseline for p(17|16), what am I missing? (And the way it resolves to false is if we say it’s a third wave that happened rather than a second, not that the numbers don’t match, and I agree that this is wrong and it resolves to true).
Yes, I agree Russia was unlikely to be above US for population reasons, I mentioned them more as an example of how bad under-reporting can be—I can’t think of a way other than Covid to get 147k unaccounted for excess deaths but I could be missing something. I had concerns about this in all 3 of China, India and Brazil (although I guess there’s the chance that we wouldn’t get (accurate) excess deaths numbers anyway). 85% for 6 seems right but only dropping 5% for 17 seems low.
A commenter on Scott’s post has made a case for India deaths being higher than US (enough to convince Scott it seems).
Its possible / likely that I’m still missing how difficult it is to win a parlay but:
Given Covid is seen as seasonal by the end of the year, there was very likely some wave in Autumn—the main question is whether it meets the conditions set out in 17
At the time of prediction it seemed almost certain that we would get below the thresholds with the next month or two
I expected (but wasn’t certain) that a second wave would take us back above one of those thresholds.
There remains the question of having a wave in the middle (Autumn wave is therefore not second wave). This was somewhere that my model was expecting a profile in the US more like what happened in the UK/Europe where cases/deaths were at a very low level for most of the Summer. This is a common thread in a few of my other predictions about US numbers—I generally underpredicted slightly but noticeably and this was a significant cause for that. So yeah, definitely an oversight from me in that regards.
Russia’s higher death toll might or might not be mostly Covid, but I figured its population wasn’t high enough. Even if all of Russia gets it, they’d need a pretty high fatality rate to catch us given what was likely happening here. Brazil similarly I figured wouldn’t document all that well and had a smaller pop.
2. I still think that there’s enough different ways this can fail that 30% is reasonable, and I dunno where the 29% comes from here? Presumably it would be higher than the 30% baseline for p(17|16), what am I missing? (And the way it resolves to false is if we say it’s a third wave that happened rather than a second, not that the numbers don’t match, and I agree that this is wrong and it resolves to true).
Yes, I agree Russia was unlikely to be above US for population reasons, I mentioned them more as an example of how bad under-reporting can be—I can’t think of a way other than Covid to get 147k unaccounted for excess deaths but I could be missing something. I had concerns about this in all 3 of China, India and Brazil (although I guess there’s the chance that we wouldn’t get (accurate) excess deaths numbers anyway). 85% for 6 seems right but only dropping 5% for 17 seems low.
A commenter on Scott’s post has made a case for India deaths being higher than US (enough to convince Scott it seems).
p(17|16) = p(17) / p(16) = 0.2 / 0.7 ~ 0.29 (as p(17|¬16) = 0)
Its possible / likely that I’m still missing how difficult it is to win a parlay but:
Given Covid is seen as seasonal by the end of the year, there was very likely some wave in Autumn—the main question is whether it meets the conditions set out in 17
At the time of prediction it seemed almost certain that we would get below the thresholds with the next month or two
I expected (but wasn’t certain) that a second wave would take us back above one of those thresholds.
There remains the question of having a wave in the middle (Autumn wave is therefore not second wave). This was somewhere that my model was expecting a profile in the US more like what happened in the UK/Europe where cases/deaths were at a very low level for most of the Summer. This is a common thread in a few of my other predictions about US numbers—I generally underpredicted slightly but noticeably and this was a significant cause for that. So yeah, definitely an oversight from me in that regards.