An expert system only needs an understanding of manufacturing, physics, and chemistry to design better computer chips, for instance.
If a program can take an understanding of those subjects and design a better computer chip, I don’t think it’s just an “expert system” anymore. I would think it would take an AI to do that. That’s an AI complete problem.
If you’re talking about revolutionary, paradigm shifting ideas—we are probably already saturated with such ideas. The main bottleneck inhibiting paradigm shifts is not the ideas but the infrastructure and economic need for the paradigm shift.
Are you serious? I would think the exact opposite would be true: we have an infrastructure starving for paradigm shifting ideas. I’d love to hear some of these revolutionary ideas that we’re saturated with. I think we have some insights, but these insights need to be fleshed out and implemented, and figuring out how to do that is the paradigm shift that needs to occur
no organization claiming to put humans first could justify being pro-AGI (friendly or not), since no possible benefit* can justify the risk of destroying humanity.
Wait a minute. If I could press a button now with a 10% chance of destroying humanity and a 90% chance of solving the world’s problems, I’d do it. Everything we do has some risks. Even the LHC had an (extremely miniscule) risk of destroying the universe, but doing a cost-benefit analysis should reveal that some things are worth minor chances of destroying humanity.
“If a program can take an understanding of those subjects and design a better computer chip, I don’t think it’s just an “expert system” anymore. I would think it would take an AI to do that. That’s an AI complete problem.”
What I had in mind was some sort of combinatorial approach to designing chips, i.e. take these materials and randomly generate a design, test it, and then start altering the search space based on the results. I didn’t mean “understanding” in the human sense of the word, sorry.
“I’d love to hear some of these revolutionary ideas that we’re saturated with. I think we have some insights, but these insights need to be fleshed out and implemented, and figuring out how to do that is the paradigm shift that needs to occur”
Example: many aspects of the legal and political systems could be reformed, and it’s not difficult to come up with ideas on how they could be reformed. The benefit is simply insufficient to justify spending much of the limited resources we have on solving those problems.
“Wait a minute. If I could press a button now with a 10% chance of destroying humanity and a 90% chance of solving the world’s problems, I’d do it. ”
So you think there’s a >10% chance that the world’s problems are going to destroy humanity in the near future?
What I had in mind was some sort of combinatorial approach to designing chips, i.e. > take these materials and randomly generate a design, test it, and then start altering
the search space based on the results. I didn’t mean “understanding” in the human
sense of the word, sorry.
Given the very large number of possibilities and the difficulty with making prototypes, this seems like an extremely inefficient process without more thought going into to it.
What I had in mind was some sort of combinatorial approach to designing chips
Oh, okay, fair enough, though I’m still not sure I would call that an “expert system” (this time for the opposite reason that it seems too stupid).
many aspects of the legal and political systems could be reformed, and it’s not difficult to come up with ideas on how they could be reformed. The benefit is simply insufficient to justify spending much of the limited resources we have on solving those problems.
Ah. I was thinking of designing an AI, probably because I was primed by your expert system comment. Well, in those cases, I think the issue is that our legal and political systems were purposely set up to be difficult to change: change requires overturning precedents, obtaining majority or 3⁄5 or 2⁄3 votes in various legislative bodies, passing constitutional amendments, and so forth. And I can guarantee you that for any of these reforms, there are powerful interests who would be harmed by the reforms, and many people who don’t want reform: this is more of a persuasion problem than an infrastructure problem. But yes, you’re right that there are plenty of revolutionary ideas about how to reform, say, the education system: they’re just not widely accepted enough to happen.
So you think there’s a >10% chance that the world’s problems are going to destroy humanity in the near future?
I’m confused by this sentence. I’m not sure if I think that, but what does it have to do with the hypothetical button that has a 10% chance of destroying humanity? My point was that it’s worth taking a small risk of destroying humanity if the benefits are great enough.
If a program can take an understanding of those subjects and design a better computer chip, I don’t think it’s just an “expert system” anymore. I would think it would take an AI to do that. That’s an AI complete problem.
Are you serious? I would think the exact opposite would be true: we have an infrastructure starving for paradigm shifting ideas. I’d love to hear some of these revolutionary ideas that we’re saturated with. I think we have some insights, but these insights need to be fleshed out and implemented, and figuring out how to do that is the paradigm shift that needs to occur
Wait a minute. If I could press a button now with a 10% chance of destroying humanity and a 90% chance of solving the world’s problems, I’d do it. Everything we do has some risks. Even the LHC had an (extremely miniscule) risk of destroying the universe, but doing a cost-benefit analysis should reveal that some things are worth minor chances of destroying humanity.
“If a program can take an understanding of those subjects and design a better computer chip, I don’t think it’s just an “expert system” anymore. I would think it would take an AI to do that. That’s an AI complete problem.”
What I had in mind was some sort of combinatorial approach to designing chips, i.e. take these materials and randomly generate a design, test it, and then start altering the search space based on the results. I didn’t mean “understanding” in the human sense of the word, sorry.
“I’d love to hear some of these revolutionary ideas that we’re saturated with. I think we have some insights, but these insights need to be fleshed out and implemented, and figuring out how to do that is the paradigm shift that needs to occur”
Example: many aspects of the legal and political systems could be reformed, and it’s not difficult to come up with ideas on how they could be reformed. The benefit is simply insufficient to justify spending much of the limited resources we have on solving those problems.
“Wait a minute. If I could press a button now with a 10% chance of destroying humanity and a 90% chance of solving the world’s problems, I’d do it. ”
So you think there’s a >10% chance that the world’s problems are going to destroy humanity in the near future?
Given the very large number of possibilities and the difficulty with making prototypes, this seems like an extremely inefficient process without more thought going into to it.
Oh, okay, fair enough, though I’m still not sure I would call that an “expert system” (this time for the opposite reason that it seems too stupid).
Ah. I was thinking of designing an AI, probably because I was primed by your expert system comment. Well, in those cases, I think the issue is that our legal and political systems were purposely set up to be difficult to change: change requires overturning precedents, obtaining majority or 3⁄5 or 2⁄3 votes in various legislative bodies, passing constitutional amendments, and so forth. And I can guarantee you that for any of these reforms, there are powerful interests who would be harmed by the reforms, and many people who don’t want reform: this is more of a persuasion problem than an infrastructure problem. But yes, you’re right that there are plenty of revolutionary ideas about how to reform, say, the education system: they’re just not widely accepted enough to happen.
I’m confused by this sentence. I’m not sure if I think that, but what does it have to do with the hypothetical button that has a 10% chance of destroying humanity? My point was that it’s worth taking a small risk of destroying humanity if the benefits are great enough.