The LessWrong Review runs every year to select the posts that have most stood the test of time. This post is not yet eligible for review, but will be at the end of 2025. The top fifty or so posts are featured prominently on the site throughout the year.
Hopefully, the review is better than karma at judging enduring value. If we have accurate prediction markets on the review results, maybe we can have better incentives on LessWrong today. Will this post make the top fifty?
The current estimate (14%) seems pretty reasonable to me. I see this post as largely a) establishing better objective measurements of an already-known phenomenon (‘truesight’), and b) making it more common knowledge. I think it can lead to work that’s of greater importance, but assuming a typical LW distribution of post quality/importance for the rest of the year, I’d be unlikely to include this post in this year’s top fifty, especially since Staab et al already covered much of the same ground even if it didn’t get much attention from the AIS community.
The LessWrong Review runs every year to select the posts that have most stood the test of time. This post is not yet eligible for review, but will be at the end of 2025. The top fifty or so posts are featured prominently on the site throughout the year.
Hopefully, the review is better than karma at judging enduring value. If we have accurate prediction markets on the review results, maybe we can have better incentives on LessWrong today. Will this post make the top fifty?
The current estimate (14%) seems pretty reasonable to me. I see this post as largely a) establishing better objective measurements of an already-known phenomenon (‘truesight’), and b) making it more common knowledge. I think it can lead to work that’s of greater importance, but assuming a typical LW distribution of post quality/importance for the rest of the year, I’d be unlikely to include this post in this year’s top fifty, especially since Staab et al already covered much of the same ground even if it didn’t get much attention from the AIS community.
Yay for accurate prediction markets!