The current estimate (14%) seems pretty reasonable to me. I see this post as largely a) establishing better objective measurements of an already-known phenomenon (‘truesight’), and b) making it more common knowledge. I think it can lead to work that’s of greater importance, but assuming a typical LW distribution of post quality/importance for the rest of the year, I’d be unlikely to include this post in this year’s top fifty, especially since Staab et al already covered much of the same ground even if it didn’t get much attention from the AIS community.
The current estimate (14%) seems pretty reasonable to me. I see this post as largely a) establishing better objective measurements of an already-known phenomenon (‘truesight’), and b) making it more common knowledge. I think it can lead to work that’s of greater importance, but assuming a typical LW distribution of post quality/importance for the rest of the year, I’d be unlikely to include this post in this year’s top fifty, especially since Staab et al already covered much of the same ground even if it didn’t get much attention from the AIS community.
Yay for accurate prediction markets!