I have a hard time imagining there’s a magical threshold where we go from “AI is automating 99.99% of my work” to “AI is automating 100% of my work” and things suddenly go Foom (unless it’s for some other reason like “the AI built a nanobot swarm and turned the planet into computronium”). As it is, I would guess we are closer to “AI is automating 20% of my work” than “AI is automating 1% of my work”
It’s of course all a matter of degree. The concrete prediction Paul made was “doubling in 4 years before we see a doubling in 1 year”. I would currently be surprised (though not very surprised) if we see the world economy doubling at all before you get much faster growth (probably by taking humans out the loop completely).
I have a hard time imagining there’s a magical threshold where we go from “AI is automating 99.99% of my work” to “AI is automating 100% of my work” and things suddenly go Foom (unless it’s for some other reason like “the AI built a nanobot swarm and turned the planet into computronium”). As it is, I would guess we are closer to “AI is automating 20% of my work” than “AI is automating 1% of my work”
It’s of course all a matter of degree. The concrete prediction Paul made was “doubling in 4 years before we see a doubling in 1 year”. I would currently be surprised (though not very surprised) if we see the world economy doubling at all before you get much faster growth (probably by taking humans out the loop completely).