Is it really true that everyone (who is an expert) agrees that FOOM is inevitable? I was under the impression that a lot of people feel that FOOM might be impossible. I personally think FOOM is far from inevitable, even for superhuman intelligences. Consider that human civilization has a collective intelligence is that is strongly superhuman, and we are expending great effort to e.g. push Moore’s law forward. There’s Eroom’s law, which suggests that the aggregate costs of each new process node doubles in step with Moore’s law. So if FOOM depends on faster hardware, ASI might not be able to push forward much faster than Intel, TSMC, ASML, IBM and NVidia already are. Of course this all depends on AI being hardware constrained, which is far from certain. I just think it’s surprising that FOOM is seen as a certainty.
Is it really true that everyone (who is an expert) agrees that FOOM is inevitable? I was under the impression that a lot of people feel that FOOM might be impossible. I personally think FOOM is far from inevitable, even for superhuman intelligences. Consider that human civilization has a collective intelligence is that is strongly superhuman, and we are expending great effort to e.g. push Moore’s law forward. There’s Eroom’s law, which suggests that the aggregate costs of each new process node doubles in step with Moore’s law. So if FOOM depends on faster hardware, ASI might not be able to push forward much faster than Intel, TSMC, ASML, IBM and NVidia already are. Of course this all depends on AI being hardware constrained, which is far from certain. I just think it’s surprising that FOOM is seen as a certainty.
Depends on who you count as an expert. That’s a judgment call since there isn’t an Official Board of AGI Timelines Experts.