Relatedly, one of the things that drove me to have short timelines in the first place was reading the literature and finding the best arguments for long timelines. Especially Ajeya Cotra’s original bio anchors report, which I considered to be the best; I found that when I went through it bit by bit and made various adjustments to the parameters/variables, fixing what seemed to me to be errors, it all added up to an on-balance significantly shorter timeline.
I had a similar experience a couple years back when running bio anchors with numbers which seemed more reasonable/less consistently slanted towards longer timelines to me, getting:
before taking into account AI accelerating AI development, which I expected to bring it a few years earlier.
Eli Lifland has a short summary here and says a longer draft is coming.
You know you’re feeling the AGI when a compelling answer to “What’s the best argument for very short AI timelines?” lengthens your timelines
yes! :D
Relatedly, one of the things that drove me to have short timelines in the first place was reading the literature and finding the best arguments for long timelines. Especially Ajeya Cotra’s original bio anchors report, which I considered to be the best; I found that when I went through it bit by bit and made various adjustments to the parameters/variables, fixing what seemed to me to be errors, it all added up to an on-balance significantly shorter timeline.
I had a similar experience a couple years back when running bio anchors with numbers which seemed more reasonable/less consistently slanted towards longer timelines to me, getting:
before taking into account AI accelerating AI development, which I expected to bring it a few years earlier.