On the contrary, I think the development model was bang on the money basically. As peterbarnett says Ajeya did forecast that there’d be a bunch of pre-training before RL. It even forecast that there’d be behavior cloning too after the pretraining and before the RL. And yeah, RL isn’t happening on a massive scale yet (as far as we know) but I and others predict that’ll change in the next few years.
On the contrary, I think the development model was bang on the money basically. As peterbarnett says Ajeya did forecast that there’d be a bunch of pre-training before RL. It even forecast that there’d be behavior cloning too after the pretraining and before the RL. And yeah, RL isn’t happening on a massive scale yet (as far as we know) but I and others predict that’ll change in the next few years.