Mo Putera comments on Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R&D

[Mo Putera]

Thought it would be useful to pull out your plot and surrounding text, which seemed cruxy:

At first glance, the job of a scientist might seem like it leans very heavily on abstract reasoning… In such a world, AIs would greatly accelerate R&D before AIs are broadly deployed across the economy to take over more common jobs, such as retail workers, real estate agents, or IT professionals. In short, AIs would “first automate science, then automate everything else.”

But this picture is likely wrong. In reality, most R&D jobs require much more than abstract reasoning skills. … To demonstrate this, we used GPT-4.5 to label tasks across 12 common R&D occupations into one of three categories, depending on whether it thinks the task can be performed using only abstract reasoning skills, whether it requires complex computer-use skills (but not physical presence), or whether it one needs to be physically present to complete the task. See this link to our conversation with GPT-4.5 to find our methodology and results.

This plot reveals a more nuanced picture of what scientific research actually entails. Contrary to the assumption that research is largely an abstract reasoning task, the reality is that much of it involves physical manipulation and advanced agency. To fully automate R&D, AI systems likely require the ability to autonomously operate computer GUIs, coordinate effectively with human teams, possess strong executive functioning skills to complete highly complex projects over long time horizons, and manipulate their physical environment to conduct experiments.

Yet, by the time AI reaches the level required to fully perform this diverse array of skills at a high level of capability, it is likely that a broad swath of more routine jobs will have already been automated. This contradicts the notion that AI will “first automate science, then automate everything else.” Instead, a more plausible prediction is that AI automation will first automate a large share of the general workforce, across a very wide range of industries, before it reaches the level needed to fully take over R&D.