Would you need to do anything super fancy to beat the market? You could in thoery just find 100 median voters who swap parties, tell them both Trump and the newcomer are pedophiles to simulate attack ads and ask who they would vote for after giving them an entire minute to think about it(to simulate the months of them hearing about it). Repeat for each canidate.
Alternatively you could check polling numbers for swing States to filter out the noise of who wins calinforna for free.
That doesn’t tell you a lot of important information. It doesn’t tell you how much a candidate will motivate people to get to the voting booth on Tuesday vs. staying home.
It doesn’t tell you how much grassroots supporters they get that campaign for them.
I agree. I think checking some polling numbers as Monkyyy suggested is a good starting point. It’s right it doesn’t tell us enough about the dynamics of mobilizing those who typically don’t vote; and the dynamic between how much Republicans and Democrats can cause others to flip sides.
Would you need to do anything super fancy to beat the market? You could in thoery just find 100 median voters who swap parties, tell them both Trump and the newcomer are pedophiles to simulate attack ads and ask who they would vote for after giving them an entire minute to think about it(to simulate the months of them hearing about it). Repeat for each canidate.
Alternatively you could check polling numbers for swing States to filter out the noise of who wins calinforna for free.
That doesn’t tell you a lot of important information. It doesn’t tell you how much a candidate will motivate people to get to the voting booth on Tuesday vs. staying home.
It doesn’t tell you how much grassroots supporters they get that campaign for them.
I agree. I think checking some polling numbers as Monkyyy suggested is a good starting point. It’s right it doesn’t tell us enough about the dynamics of mobilizing those who typically don’t vote; and the dynamic between how much Republicans and Democrats can cause others to flip sides.
This is especially true given that the case for not nominating a centrist is to have stronger motivation of the base.