The most common disasters are Fires, Famines, and Pillage. All else being equal, interventions targeting these will have the best ROI.
Earthquakes have a bimodal distribution. They are more common in Italia than in Grecia or Hispania, but rare overall compared to other disasters.
Plague in one province can spread to adjacent provinces next year, but never hits the same province in successive years.
Pillaging your neighbor increases your Fire risk for the next year.
Fire, Earthquake, or being Pillaged increases the next year’s risk of Famine.
Plague completely eliminates the next year’s risk of Famine.
Earthquakes predict future Earthquakes, especially in the same Province.
Fire rarely occurs following Fire or Earthquake in the same Province.
Disaster Predictions:
Persians never Pillage Grecia following a Plague year in Anatolia or Scythia, so Grecia is safe this year.
Plague in Anatolia last year could spread to Grecia this year.
Multiple Black Doves last year also predict Plague in Grecia this year.
Multiple Black Doves last year predict Famine in both Italia and Hispania this year.
Geese Flying Backward in Hispania last year also predicts Famine in Hispania this year.
Fire + Earthquake in Italia last year also predicts Famine in Italia this year.
Roman Pillage in Anatolia last year predicts Fire in Grecia this year.
Interventions:
(10k) Protection of Asclepius for Grecia
(10k) Fire protection service for Grecia
(10k) Grain shipments to Hispania
(10k) Grain shipments to Italia
(10k) Reinforce Hispania against the Britons
(10k) Reinforce Italia against the Germans
Misc. Notes:
The most common disasters are Fires, Famines, and Pillage. All else being equal, interventions targeting these will have the best ROI.
Earthquakes have a bimodal distribution. They are more common in Italia than in Grecia or Hispania, but rare overall compared to other disasters.
Plague in one province can spread to adjacent provinces next year, but never hits the same province in successive years.
Pillaging your neighbor increases your Fire risk for the next year.
Fire, Earthquake, or being Pillaged increases the next year’s risk of Famine.
Plague completely eliminates the next year’s risk of Famine.
Earthquakes predict future Earthquakes, especially in the same Province.
Fire rarely occurs following Fire or Earthquake in the same Province.
Disaster Predictions:
Persians never Pillage Grecia following a Plague year in Anatolia or Scythia, so Grecia is safe this year.
Plague in Anatolia last year could spread to Grecia this year.
Multiple Black Doves last year also predict Plague in Grecia this year.
Multiple Black Doves last year predict Famine in both Italia and Hispania this year.
Geese Flying Backward in Hispania last year also predicts Famine in Hispania this year.
Fire + Earthquake in Italia last year also predicts Famine in Italia this year.
Roman Pillage in Anatolia last year predicts Fire in Grecia this year.
Interventions:
(10k) Protection of Asclepius for Grecia
(10k) Fire protection service for Grecia
(10k) Grain shipments to Hispania
(10k) Grain shipments to Italia
(10k) Reinforce Hispania against the Britons
(10k) Reinforce Italia against the Germans