The trade-off you’re gesturing at is really risk of AGI vs. risk of nuclear devastation. So you don’t need absolute certainty on either side in order to be willing to make it.
If the former, then I don’t understand your comment and maybe a rewording would help me.
If the latter, then I’ll just reiterate that I’m referring to Eliezer’s explicitly stated willingness to trade off the actuality of (not just some risk of) nuclear devastation to prevent the creation of AGI (though again, to be clear, I am not claiming he advocated a nuclear first strike). The only potential uncertainty in that tradeoff is the consequences of AGI (though I think Eliezer’s been clear that he thinks it means certain doom), and I suppose what follows after nuclear devastation as well.
The trade-off you’re gesturing at is really risk of AGI vs. risk of nuclear devastation. So you don’t need absolute certainty on either side in order to be willing to make it.
Did you intend to say risk off, or risk of?
If the former, then I don’t understand your comment and maybe a rewording would help me.
If the latter, then I’ll just reiterate that I’m referring to Eliezer’s explicitly stated willingness to trade off the actuality of (not just some risk of) nuclear devastation to prevent the creation of AGI (though again, to be clear, I am not claiming he advocated a nuclear first strike). The only potential uncertainty in that tradeoff is the consequences of AGI (though I think Eliezer’s been clear that he thinks it means certain doom), and I suppose what follows after nuclear devastation as well.