But on the object level, if you do think that AGI means certain extinction, then that’s indeed the right call (consider also that a single strike on a data centre might mean a risk of nuclear war, but that doesn’t mean it’s a certainty. If one listened to Putin’s barking, every bit of help given to Ukraine is a risk of nuclear war, but in practice Russia just swallows it up and lets it go, because no one is actually very eager to push that button, and they still have way too much to lose from it).
The scenario in which Eliezer’s approach is just wrong is if he is vastly overestimating the risk of an AGI extinction event or takeover. This might be the case, or might become so in the future (for example imagine a society in which the habit is to still enforce the taboo, but alignment has actually advanced enough to make friendly AI feasible). It isn’t perfect, it isn’t necessarily always true, but it isn’t particularly scandalous. I bet you lots of hawkish pundits during the Cold War have said that nuclear annihilation would have been preferable to the worldwide victory of Communism, and that is a substantially more nonsensical view.
I agree that if you’re absolutely certain AGI means the death of everything, then nuclear devastation is preferable.
I think the absolute certainty that AGI does mean the death of everything is extremely far from called for, and is itself a bit scandalous.
(As to whether Eliezer’s policy proposal is likely to lead to nuclear devastation, my bottom line view is it’s too vague to have an opinion. But I think he should have consulted with actual AI policy experts and developed a detailed proposal with them, which he could then point to, before writing up an emotional appeal, with vague references to air strikes and nuclear conflict, for millions of lay people to read in TIME Magazine.)
I think the absolute certainty in general terms would not be warranted; the absolute certainty if AGI is being developed in a reckless manner is more reasonable. Compare someone researching smallpox in a BSL-4 lab versus someone juggling smallpox vials in a huge town square full of people, and what probability does each of them make you assign to a smallpox pandemic being imminent. I still don’t think AGI would mean necessarily doom simply because I don’t fully buy that its ability to scale up to ASI is 100% guaranteed.
However, I also think in practice that would matter little, because states might still see even regular AGI as a major threat. Having infinite cognitive labour is such a broken hax tactic it basically makes you Ruler of the World by default if you have an exclusive over it. That alone might make it a source of tension.
We don’t know with confidence how hard alignment is, and whether something roughly like the current trajectory (even if reckless) leads to certain death if it reaches superintelligence.
There is a wide range of opinion on this subject from smart, well-informed people who have devoted themselves to studying it. We have a lot of blog posts and a small number of technical papers, all usually making important (and sometimes implicit and unexamined) theoretical assumptions which we don’t know are true, plus some empirical analysis of much weaker systems.
We do not have an established, well-tested scientific theory like we do with pathogens such as smallpox. We cannot say with confidence what is going to happen.
But on the object level, if you do think that AGI means certain extinction, then that’s indeed the right call (consider also that a single strike on a data centre might mean a risk of nuclear war, but that doesn’t mean it’s a certainty. If one listened to Putin’s barking, every bit of help given to Ukraine is a risk of nuclear war, but in practice Russia just swallows it up and lets it go, because no one is actually very eager to push that button, and they still have way too much to lose from it).
The scenario in which Eliezer’s approach is just wrong is if he is vastly overestimating the risk of an AGI extinction event or takeover. This might be the case, or might become so in the future (for example imagine a society in which the habit is to still enforce the taboo, but alignment has actually advanced enough to make friendly AI feasible). It isn’t perfect, it isn’t necessarily always true, but it isn’t particularly scandalous. I bet you lots of hawkish pundits during the Cold War have said that nuclear annihilation would have been preferable to the worldwide victory of Communism, and that is a substantially more nonsensical view.
I agree that if you’re absolutely certain AGI means the death of everything, then nuclear devastation is preferable.
I think the absolute certainty that AGI does mean the death of everything is extremely far from called for, and is itself a bit scandalous.
(As to whether Eliezer’s policy proposal is likely to lead to nuclear devastation, my bottom line view is it’s too vague to have an opinion. But I think he should have consulted with actual AI policy experts and developed a detailed proposal with them, which he could then point to, before writing up an emotional appeal, with vague references to air strikes and nuclear conflict, for millions of lay people to read in TIME Magazine.)
I think the absolute certainty in general terms would not be warranted; the absolute certainty if AGI is being developed in a reckless manner is more reasonable. Compare someone researching smallpox in a BSL-4 lab versus someone juggling smallpox vials in a huge town square full of people, and what probability does each of them make you assign to a smallpox pandemic being imminent. I still don’t think AGI would mean necessarily doom simply because I don’t fully buy that its ability to scale up to ASI is 100% guaranteed.
However, I also think in practice that would matter little, because states might still see even regular AGI as a major threat. Having infinite cognitive labour is such a broken hax tactic it basically makes you Ruler of the World by default if you have an exclusive over it. That alone might make it a source of tension.
We don’t know with confidence how hard alignment is, and whether something roughly like the current trajectory (even if reckless) leads to certain death if it reaches superintelligence.
There is a wide range of opinion on this subject from smart, well-informed people who have devoted themselves to studying it. We have a lot of blog posts and a small number of technical papers, all usually making important (and sometimes implicit and unexamined) theoretical assumptions which we don’t know are true, plus some empirical analysis of much weaker systems.
We do not have an established, well-tested scientific theory like we do with pathogens such as smallpox. We cannot say with confidence what is going to happen.